Seahawks 2025 - WORLD CHAMPIONS

Mike Macdonald's first season was promising. The team still won 10 games despite a complete coaching turn over and to start his second season a majority of the offensive coaching staff and players were sent packing. A lot of media outlets had the Seahawks finishing 3rd or 4th in the NFC West and missing the playoffs. "WE DID NOT CARE!" Coach Mac turned this team around in his second year. His approach to team unity, the process they go through every week, and the type of players and coaches he looks for drove this team to success. 

A lot of people questioned trading DK & Geno, letting go of Lockett, and replacing the entire offense despite their success last season. As a person who's been advocating for these moves, I feel vindicated. The style of offense you need to win in the league, with the defense this team has, is an offense that isn't prone to turnovers and can control the clock. I am very happy with the play of the offense the second half of the season when Darnold went from a gunslinger to a game manager. The run game took center stage and Darnold just had to keep the team ahead of the chains and get them into scoring position. Unfortunately this means the Seahawks have lost some coaches in the off-season and may lose some players too but that comes with the territory of winning. 

Credit: SI.com

Now, let's dip into the off-season and look at who's leaving, who should be replaced, and how to fill the gaps. 

Coaching: 

It's no surprise to see Klint Kubiak leave. Given his family name and his offensive success this season he was bound for a promotion to another team. I'm happy he went to an AFC team so I don't have to root against him. I have nothing but praise for him in putting together this offense in 1 season with a bunch of new starters. He did an amazing job and deserves the success.

Who would be a great OC going forward? The Seahawks have been flirting with promoting coaches within. Given the list of available OCs in the league, this may actually be the best move. This may also help keep more offensive assistants in the building so the team doesn't lose a step next season. 

Now let's look at players and see who's leaving and who should come back.

Free Agents: 

• WR Rashid Shaheed: (Let go) - he had a fantastic 2nd half of the year for the Hawks on special teams but wasn't a factor much on offense. Players returning from injury will fill his roles well and he's owed a big payday at ~$14M/yr.
• T Josh Jones: (re-sign 2 yrs $3.5M/yr) Josh was an incredible backup at tackle who played through injuries and put together amazing depth. At his price he could be re-signed easily to backup both tackles. 
• DE Boye Mafe: (let go) Boye has been a great defensive end but he hasn't fit well in Macdonald's scheme and his production has dropped, while DLaw and DHall have had great success. 
• RB Ken Walker: (Franchise tag) K9 was having a rough start to the season but when Kubiak changed the offensive scheme he took off and ended up being superbowl MVP. The Seahawks would have to sign him to a top 5 RB deal but long term he seems too banged up to last and John isn't the type to lock up RBs to long deals during his tenure. A franchise pays top 5 money for 1 season while Charbo heals and Holani potentially leaves.
• CB Josh Jobe: (re-sign 2 yrs $10M/yr) Jobe was key to the defensive success when other corners were hurt and struggling. He was consistent all year at being the unsung hero. He's due for a big payday. If the Seahawks can sign him to a 2-3 year deal at $9-10M per year then I'd take him over Woolen. 
• ILB Chazz Surratt: (let go) Chazz was great as a backup but honestly he didn't contribute much to the team and was mostly injured all year. 
• S Coby Bryant: (re-sign 2 yrs $10M/yr) Coby is an amazing safety. He fits Macdonald's scheme well. Unfortunately he may get higher offers elsewhere but no safety is worth the price he might go for, regardless of how good they are. 
• S Ty Okada: (re-sign 2 yrs $2M/yr) Ty is a great safety depth piece. He doesn't quite have the ball skills but he has the hitting power against the run and pass. He should be very affordable due to being a backup and under the radar across the league. He'll be needed if Coby takes more money elsewhere. 
• FB/ST Brady Russell: (re-sign 2 yrs $2M/yr) Brady is a key ST piece on this team. He plays hard and the locker room loves him. He should be available for cheap and is a great depth piece at FB. 
• WR Cody White: (let go) Cody is great. He can block, play ST, and gives you depth when players get hurt. Unfortunately he's now aging out at his position and hasn't contributed in a significant enough way to earn his role over potential draft picks or UDFA's. 
• CB Riq Woolen: (let go) I loved Tariq but Riq has been disappointing. He has great ball skills but his lack of physicality makes him a bad fit in Macdonald's scheme. He will make amazing plays followed up by complete blunders by blowing his coverage or making a dumb penalty. He will get his bag elsewhere so no love lost. I prefer to keep Jobe over him. 
• WR Dareke Young: (re-sign 2 yrs $1M/yr) Dareke is awesome as a depth WR. His play on ST and in run blocking are second to none. Injuries hurt him a couple years ago but he looks to be back in full force. He should be a cheap signing. 
• DT Brandon Pili: (re-sign 2 yrs $1M/yr) Pili is a great DT depth piece. There are several interior DTs ahead of him but he's proven he can be reliable when needed. He'll also be a very affordable signing as DT depth. Hopefully they keep him around on the active roster or as practice squad. 
• ILB Drake Thomas: (re-sign 3 yrs $3M/yr) Drake went from a nobody to a huge part of the team. He can run the defense as the green dot when EJ is out and he can be part of base defense in run/pass downs. He is fast, he is smart, and he's a hard tackler. He should be a very affordable ILB depth piece and he fits perfectly in this scheme. 
• WR Jake Bobo: (re-sign 2 yrs $2M/yr) much like Dareke, Bobo is a key WR depth piece for ST and run blockers. The fans and clubhouse love him. He should be a cheap short term signing. 
• LS Chris Stoll: (re-sign 3 yrs $2M/yr) Stoll had a very good season at long snapper and it would make sense to keep the kicking and punting game together for the next few years.
• S AJ Finley: (let go) Finley wasn't much of a factor on this superbowl run and is easily replaced via the draft or free agency as a depth piece. 
• RB George Holani: (re-sign 2 yrs $2M/yr) Holani is a great RB depth piece and with K9 potentially leaving, Charbo being injured most of next season, and KMac coming back from injury, the team will need Holani to come back. He should be an affordable short term signing. 

Non-FA's To Release or Trade: 

RG Bradford: Bradford has been awful at RG. His pass protection is horrible. He may be good in the run game but in passing situations he gets burned or commits a penalty far too often. He cannot be relied upon. Despite winning a superbowl with him, there's many plays that went wrong because of him in almost every big game during the season. Bradford can be replaced in free agency or the draft.

2026 NFL Draft: 

The unfortunate side of winning the last game of the year is the Seahawks dropping to the #32 overall pick. The Seahawks also may get some compensatory picks but those haven't been announced yet so they currently have 4 picks overall (R1 #32, R2 #64, R3 #96, R6 #tbd). 

Draft needs: The Seahawks don't have urgent needs but could use some competition and depth. They should target Oline, RB, S, CB, DE

Overall Expectations: 

For 2026 I'm expecting a tough NFC West again but the Seahawks will have the players and coaches with the ability to repeat as champions. It is very difficult to predict how things will go until players and coaches fall into place. After the draft I'll have a much clearer prediction but for now I say the Seahawks will win the NFC West and compete in the NFC Championship game again. There's no reason not to expect this after they did it previously a decade ago. 

Seattle Mariners 2025 Season was Bliss - 2026 Has High Expectations

At the end of the 2024 season I was upset at the Mariners. Not the players but the organization as a whole who yet again put out an inferior product and tried to sell the fans on a championship mindset. The fans weren't buying it after 24 years of said promise not coming to fruition. However, last season was the first the Mariners finally did what the fans asked, make big moves for big bats who could help carry the team to their goals. The Mariners finally put together a lineup to go with their pitching so they could compete and it worked just as the fans expected. The Mariners won the AL West and were a few innings away from the World Series. What a great season and expectations are high heading into 2026. Let's talk about where the Mariners are at and what they can do to repeat as AL West champions and make another deep playoff push.

Credit: Seattle Times

First let's give credit to Dan Wilson and this coaching staff. They heard the feedback after 2024, made the necessary changes to their coaching staff, and changed their approach and process to every practice and game. This paid dividends for building the championship culture they needed to compete. Also, credit to the front office, general managers, and ownership for going all in at the all-star break and getting 2 big bats from Arizona in Naylor and Suarez, while also grabbing a much needed bullpen depth piece (who unfortunately didn't work out but there was no way to know he wouldn't at the time). 

Naylor's presence was key. He was a clubhouse favorite and fan favorite. He provided clutch defense and offense that's been missing at 1B in Seattle for a very long time. Every fan is happy he was able to re-sign with the team in the off-season and hopefully he heals fully this off-season so he can take over where he left off last year.

Let's dig in to how the Mariners can shake off a bad ending to a great season and make a championship caliber team in 2026. 

1) Getting On Base and Moving Base Runners (again)

There needs to be more focused on small ball in Seattle. Yes they have the power to win every game but playing in Seattle, the best way to win is sometimes simply stringing together walks, hits, stolen bases, and sacrifices. This puts a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers and the threat of the home run is always there making it scarier for opposing teams to face. Last season the Mariners were 20th in batting average at .244 and were bottom of the league in strikeouts. They need to clean this up, strike out less, and get on base more. Overall the Mariners were #3 in home runs, #3 in stolen bases, and #10 in OBP which is a huge improvement over the previous season so they are trending in a good direction offensively. The challenge here will be filling holes of lost players at 2B and 3B where Suarez and Polanco were both offensive threats.

2) Coaching (again)

I was pleasantly surprised to see Dan and his staff mature last season after squandering the previous season. They really changed up their approach and the results spoke for themselves. However, there's still a lot of coaching decisions that I question throughout the season and playoffs. For instance, when to change pitchers and who to bring in from the pen. Dan has a tendency to let starters go too long who are not on their A-game or pull guys too soon who are dealing. He also has his go-to guys in situations which leads to overuse. This showed in the playoffs when certain arms were simply gassed. I also believe when bases are open to fill them with feared hitters. Springer should've never been able to bat when he hit his 3-run homer in game 7 of the ALCS. First base was open, put him on and pitch for a double play, or at least limit damage to 1-2 runs. Springer was the last person you wanted to face there with 1b open. Hopefully Dan learns from last year's mistakes (he's proven he can) so this season he makes better decisions. 

3) Roster Improvements (again)

Yet again, the Mariners need to replace a couple key positions and bolster their bullpen for next season. They have key decisions to make in the infield. They also have a couple RP spots to consider. 

I'm skeptical that the Mariners will make anymore big moves this off-season as they re-signed who they needed and still have to deal with arbitration. I would assume the trade deadline will yield any missing pieces of injuries or subpar play require it. 

What should the Mariners do to replace the few pieces that are leaving, as well as bolstering their lineup to be more successful and make another championship run? Here's a few areas they can look at: 

Weak or Missing Positions: 

• 2B/SS: The Mariners don't really have an all-star middle infielder. J.P. is awesome as the oldest Mariner on the active roster but his play has been so up and down that it's hard to rely on him. Additionally, Polanco has left at 2B leaving the middle infield very weak. I would not be against bringing in a 2B or moving J.P. to 2B and getting a good SS. Overall the remaining FA's are not great and using the farm system may be a potentially better option with Cole Young being close to ready for the big leagues and Leo Rivas being a great backup. 
• Some FA available at 2B: Adam Frazier, Luis Urias. Some SS available are Luis Rengifo, Ramon Urias, and Tim Anderson.

• 3B: The Mariners are also short a starting 3B with Suarez being gone. The only available FA's left also aren't that great so promoting Ben Williamson again may be the best option. 
• Some FA available at 3B: Ramon Urias and Jose Iglesias. 

• RP: The Mariners had one of the top bullpens in baseball last year but it was heavily reliant upon a handful of pitchers. The bullpen wasn't very deep and the playoffs showed it. The best RPs were gassed and the middle relievers were not up to the task. The Mariners need to bring in a lefty and righty to use in low leverage situations so the backend of the pen doesn't have to pitch multiple innings.
• Some FA available at RP: Paul Sewald, Andrew Chafin, Joey Lucchesi, Shelby Miller, Jose Leclerc, Rafael Montero, Jalen Beeks

• DH: The M's revolving door of below average hitters at DH needs to stop. They need to find a big bat in free agency who can hit in cleanup. No more experiments like Mitch Garver. I hope they can go grab a bat at some point or find a way to platoon guys to give people a day off from playing defense.

In a nutshell, the M's need a to figure out their infield and bullpen. If they do this then they have a high likelihood of repeating as AL West champions.

Seahawks 2024, A Wasted Opportunity

The first season of Mike Macdonald's career as a head coach of the Seahawks was both a positive, yet wasted season. On a good note Mike showed a lot of improvements as a head coach when it came to managing the team, managing the game, and managing the media/fans. I saw him transform from a guy who looked completely lost in the middle of the season to a coach who was confident. I saw a guy who was unafraid of cutting players and coaches who got in the way of progress. I really hope to continue to see his growth as a head coach and I hope he gets more say on players and personnel going forward (despite his end of year press conference stating the opposite). 

The wasted part was the hiring of a college OC who had no business being in the NFL and was simply a local fan favorite because he came from the University of Washington in Seattle. This resulted in a sporadic offense that looked horrible at times and inspired Geno Smith to do what you don't want him to do, hold the ball. This resulted in many penalties, turnovers, sacks, and 3-outs.

Credit: Rod Mar/Seattle Seahawks

Let's summarize another season where the Seahawks needed a single win to be able to win the division and sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately they allowed the Rams to take the division again due to a poorly managed mid-late season filled with all 3 phases of the game struggling at different times.

The defense dramatically improved by the end of season after Seattle got rid of all their starting linebackers and benched certain players. The special teams was still mediocre by season's end and it's surprising to see Jay Harbaugh still employed. The offense was very up and down all year, with lots of turnovers, lots of penalties, and almost no run game.

The offensive slump was not good. We saw a top 10 offense in Geno's first year as a starter. That went to a bottom 10 offense his 2nd year, and another bottom 10 showing in his third year. Geno was top in the league in turnovers and middle of the league in touchdowns. Geno's best games came when there was a run game to run play action off of and a quick passing game full of easy to complete routes. Geno is at his worst when you put the game solely in his hands and have long downfield route concepts. He's always been terrible at reading a defense and finding the open receiver. He needs an offense that forces him to be decisive early or that gets him out of the pocket.

Now, let's dip into the off-season and look at who's leaving, who should be replaced, and how to fill the gaps. 

Coaching: 

It's no surprise to see Ryan Grubb get fired. His offense was never going to work in Seattle. It's also not the style that Macdonald would want to run with the style of play he likes. It was surprising to see this hire and I have to imagine the people up high made this call, not Mike. These are the same people who have allowed the starting QB role to be solely in the hands of Geno and they spent two top 5 draft picks on defense instead of a QB.

Who would be a great OC going forward? The Seahawks have been flirting with promoting coaches with zero OC experience. This has failed in the past if you look at the last 3 OC's in Seattle. Instead they need to focus on an established OC who either left a bad program or failed as a HC. Options such as Pederson would be a good fit. Coach Mike wants to run the ball, run play action, and limit turnovers. A west coast offense would be best where there's plenty of unique run packages that also have RPO and PA elements to them. 

Scott Huff is most likely to leave next. He came in with Grubb and turned the Seahawks poor offensive line into an even worse line, bottom 5 in the league. Jay Harbaugh also led a very bad special teams. This group had multiple turnovers in 1 game that cost them the game. He seems to put the wrong players in the wrong position. He's only a coach because of his name. 

Now let's look at players and see who's leaving and who should come back.

Free Agents: 

• DT Jarran Reed: Re-sign (~2 years $9M) - had a fantastic season (UFA)
• TE Pharaoh Brown: Let go (frees $3.2M) - had no impact (UFA)
• DT Jonathan Hankins: Let go (frees $2M) - lost his starting job mid-season (UFA)
• S K'Von Wallace: Let go (frees $1.5M) - had no impact (UFA)
• DE Trevis Gipson: Let go (frees $1.3M) - had no impact (UFA)
• G Laken Tomlinson: Let go (frees $1.2M) - had negative impact (UFA)
• LB Ernest Jones: Re-sign (3 years $30M) - turned the defense around once acquired (UFA)
• CB Tre Brown: Let go (frees $1M) - had no impact (UFA)
• WR Jaelon Dardon: Let go (frees $900k) - had no impact (RFA)
• TE Brady Russell: Let go (frees $900k) - missed most the season due to injury (ERFA)
• LB Josh Ross: Let go (frees $900k) - had no impact (ERFA)
• T Stone Forsythe: Let go (frees $900k) - missed most the season due to injury but was always bad (UFA)

Non-FA's To Release or Trade: 

CB Riq Woolen: AGAIN, it's very clear Tariq doesn't care about winning or putting the team first. His only thoughts are being good at coverage and avoiding injury by not getting involved in tackles. His attitude on and off the field this season are not the type of culture the Seahawks should be a part of and they should seek some trade capital for him immediately while he still has value. He single handedly cost the team a couple games by being out of position and by refusing to tackle. They need a corner who can play zone, who rallies to the ball, and who can make a tackle. Cutting him would result in ~$1M in cap hit savings.

WR Tyler Lockett: AGAIN, I love Tyler but it's clear at the end of the season he can't keep up anymore. He's sucking oxygen after every drive, isn't getting as open as he used to, and falls down immediately when he makes a catch to avoid getting hit. It's also clear he's growing his relationships and business outside of football given the amount of articles I'm seeing about him doing real estate. Again, I love Tyler, have his autograph, and want him to have a good ending to his career in Seattle, but I think it's time for him to retire and enjoy his non-football life because JSN has stepped up as the clear #2. Also it's ~$17M cap hit savings to cut him.

WR D.K. Metcalf: AGAIN, I've been saying for 2 years that DK isn't helping this team get to the playoffs and they'd be better off getting something for him while they can before he becomes a UFA. This is his last season on contract and he should be traded while he has some value. The draft picks could bring way more value to the future of the team and keeping him around will ensure the Seahawks won't be good enough to get to the Superbowl. 

DE Dre'mont Jones: Dre'mont was a terrible signing by Schneider. He was overpaid for his lack of production and he kept the Seahawks hostage this year as a guy who couldn't play in the schemes that both Pete and Mike wanted to run. At one point this season Mike told him at practice that he would cut him if he was allowed to. That told me all I need to know about this guy's effort. He only cares about the paycheck. Cutting him this season would save ~$11M in cap hit. 

RB Kenneth Walker: It's unfortunate but yet again the Seahawks have a star RB who can't stay healthy. With Charbo stepping up, and multiple injuries piling up, it seems like Walker is done with his career. A post 6/1 release would cost the Seahawks $0 in dead cap and save them ~$1.9M in cap savings so it's potentially likely that he will be cut this summer. 

T George Fant: Fant was brought in for O-line depth, especially with so many players being injured on the line this year. Unfortunately he had a season ending injury early on and contributed nothing. Cutting him after 6/1 ensures the Seahawks have $0 in dead cap and would save them $3.5M in cap savings.

S Rayshawn Jenkins: This is a tough one but Jenkins should be traded and if he has no trade value then he should be cut after 6/1. He has a $0 dead cap hit after 6/1 and would save the team $5.4M in cap savings, which would be huge given he lost his starting job to Coby Bryant. 

QB Geno Smith: This is a stretch but Geno will have a cap hit of $44M in 2025 and has to be restructured to stay around. He may have some trade value prior to 6/1 but releasing him afterwards would have $0 dead cap hit and would wave the team $31M in cap savings. The team will have to restructure, trade, or release him after 6/1. Keeping him on this current contract will be bad for the team. 

2025 NFL Draft: 

The unfortunate side of winning the last game of the year is the Seahawks dropping to the #18 overall pick. The Seahawks also may get some compensatory picks so they are projected with 8 picks overall (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th, 7th). 

Draft needs: The Seahawks need to target QB, RB, WR, G, C, T, CB

Overall Expectations: 

For 2025 I am not expecting much of a difference in the Seahawks results. I project they'll win 9-10 games and be competing for a wild card spot in the NFC. I am expecting big changes to the roster and coaching staff to help the team form its new identity. The important thing is to make the necessary changes to modify the team's trajectory so they can hit a deep playoff run in 2026-2027.

Seattle Mariners Are Bad 2024 Edition - Another Season and Another Playoff Miss

The Mariners, once again, got eliminated from post-season contention in the final week of the regular season, and it never felt at any point like they stood a chance during the second half of the season. The first half of the season the team was overachieving while the rest of the league was struggling. The Mariners had a 10 game lead over the Astros before falling apart completely. 

All off-season, and pre-trade deadline, the fans and media were clambering for management to go find some bats. Instead the Mariners signed a bunch of washed up veterans (as they always do), and the team unfortunately faltered offensively and defensively. Jrod didn't show up statistically until the last month of the season and the rest of the team struggled mightily, outside of Cal Raleigh who had an amazing season.

The lone bright spot this season was the firing of Scott Servais. I've been calling for this for years and it's about time management got rid of him. Unfortunately a lot of his assistants stayed and the replacements are 1995 Mariner veterans with no caching experience. While the team finished strong, it was too little too late. I still went to a game to show my support for the firing, but this offseason needs some serious bats and infielders if they plan to make a push. I won't hold my breath.

I still believe the Mariners need to bring in an actual manager with actual championship coaching experience. The Mariners need a guy who understands how to build a lineup, how to position the defense on every play, when to pull pitchers, and who to put in for key situations. We'll see if Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez can have a good season but I still saw similar blunders at the end of the season. Bad defensive plays, awkward pitching changes, and lots of strikeouts. Perhaps a whole offseason building the roster and chemistry they desire will change things around.

Credit: AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Last year I saw the Mariners actually regress, and that is not want you want to see as a fan whose team made the post-season 2 years before. Instead of signing a big name middle infielder and bat to be DH, they rolled with guys like Garver, Rojas, Haniger, Polanco, and Urias. Most of these guys are off the roster going into the off-season because of how horrible they were. Most were replaced mid-season by AAA callups and mid-season trades. 

On top of the bad free agents in the lineup, the Mariners also allowed their bullpen to regress yet again. The year they made the playoffs 2 seasons ago, they had a top 10 bullpen in MLB. This latest season they were middle of the league. They dealt with multiple key injuries and players underperforming, but relying on those injured players was a bad bet. The Mariners starters only go for 5-7 innings max and Servais replaced starters with the bullpen with runners on too often, which resulted in a lot of inherited runners scoring. 

Let's dig in to how the Mariners can shake off a bad season and make a championship caliber team in 2024. 

1) Getting On Base and Moving Base Runners (again)

The focus from Dan and Edgar needs to be with OBP and manufacturing runs via sacrifices and putting the ball in play. Once again the M's were middle of the league on OBP. They had the most strikeouts in the league and set a franchise record for striking out. This was after they told the fans that the focus this off-season was on eliminating strikeouts (an excuse used to justify getting rid of their best hitters). The plate discipline needs to be an off-season target. Additionally, the Mariners were horrible at sacrifices and lost multiple extra inning games because they were unable to score the free runner on 2nd. 

2) Coaching (again)

We will see how Dan and Edgar do as coaches. They finished the last month of the season on a decent note as the Mariners had a better W/L ratio under Dan than under Servais. It still wasn't enough to come close to making the playoffs. Their lack of coaching experience makes them wild cards but also elicits hope as they can learn and improve as they go. However, we need to see them consistently making the right strategies and decisions to match their players and stadium.

3) Roster Improvements (again)

The Mariners need to replace a couple key positions and bolster their bullpen for next season. They have key decisions to make in the entire infield. They also have a couple RP spots to consider. The only thing they have is a stacked rotation, but that wasn't enough to help them this season.  

I'm skeptical that the Mariners will make any big moves after hearing the GM and owner consistently tell fans the same story, which has had the same results. Dipoto says the same thing every year and it scares any potential major players from signing with Seattle, which is why they always have to get players via trades.

Players Who are Free Agents: Who to re-sign and who to let go (most have been let go already so here's the remaining list).

• Justin Turner - starting 1B/DH, JT came mid-season via trade in hopes of bolstering the lineup. Unfortunately he was terrible defensively and offensively he regressed. Given his age I wouldn't be shocked if he retired or had a homecoming in LA. - ($13M/yr, should not re-sign)
• Yimi Garcia - Yimi was a RP who came in and helped Seattle but was up and down to end the season before getting hurt. They shouldn't re-sign him as his WAR was less than 1 and he's hurt.  - ($5.5M/yr, should not re-sign)
• Jorge Polanco - Jorge was one of the "big" off-season acquisitions that resulted in mediocrity. He was hurt for a month mid-season, and was up and down from there. Some games he was on fire, while other games he struck out a ton and played average defense. Overall he was ok but not great.  - ($5.1M/yr, already gone) 
• Josh Rojas - Rojas was a surprising early season league leader in hits and average. Then he fell off as teams figured him out. He couldn't hit at all after that, and his defense was average at best, which is not good for the hot corner. He still had an above average season given he wasn't supposed to be the team's starting 3B.  - ($3.1M/yr, already gone)
• JT Chargois - Chargois was brought in mid-season via trade to bolster the bullpen. Similarly to other RPs, he had bright spots and bad spots. Overall he underperformed and wasn't worth the trade as he had a less than 1 WAR.  - ($1.3M/yr, already gone)
• Austin Voth - After decent playoff season in Baltimore, Seattle brought in Voth to bolster the  middle of the pen. Unfortunately he extremely underperformed and had a negative WAR.  - ($1.2M/yr, already gone)
• Sam Haggerty - There was a time where Swaggerty was a potential future utility player for the Ms but he's been very inconsistent and often injured. Unfortunately he never lived up to his hype and is more of a AAA caliber player.  - ($900k/yr, already gone)
• Luis Urias - he was so bad that he was already release by the Mariners before free agency decision even began.

What should the Mariners do to replace the few pieces that are leaving, as well as bolstering their lineup to be more successful and make a championship run? Here's a few areas they can look at: 

Weak or Missing Positions: 

• 1B: The Mariners don't have a starting 1B entering next season, but there are some huge names available in free agency such as Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Connor Joe. There's rumors they're targeting Carlos Santana who would basically be the same type of player Turner was at 40 years old. Hopefully they get someone younger like Alonso, Walker, or Joe.

• 2B/SS: The Mariners don't really have an all-star middle infielder. J.P. is often injured and has regressed as a player. He's never lived up to the hype of the future star SS that was promised. At 2B the Mariners have nobody right now. The Mariners need to serious look at signing a major middle infielder or trading one of their many SP's for one. They can roll with J.P. at 2B or SS and pickup someone else who's willing to play the other spot.
• Some FA available are Gleyber Torres, Kyle Farmer, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim, Jose Iglesias, and Paul Dejong. I'd like to see them make a push for Ha-Seong if they can and move him or J.P to 2B.

• 3B: The Mariners are also short a starting 3B with Urias and Rojas being gone. Bregman is best available in free agency but nobody wants him on the team. I'd like to see a trade here as Rojas is actually the second best FA available and they let him go. Perhaps the Alec Bohm trade rumors are true but every team is interested in him.

• RP: The Mariners had a top 5 bullpen in 2022 and then dropped to middle of the pack in 2023 & 2024 after losing arms. The M's are now lacking good consistent arms outside of Munoz. Getting Brash back could help but he missed an entire season after a bad injury so it's difficult to know if he'll be back to his old self. They're going to need to replace Chargois and Garcia. They also have some guys who are mediocre who could be replaced easily. There are 27 RPs available in FA with a WAR of 1 or higher.

• DH: The M's revolving door of below average hitters at DH needs to stop. They need to find a big bat in free agency who can hit in cleanup. No more experiments like Mitch Garver or Justin Turner. They need someone who can hit consistently, or someone younger with upside. There's many free agents available at DH and other positions that could rotate with DH. If they go with Garver again then it'll be disappointing. Maybe they can package Garver in a deal to another team start or mid-season.

• OF: The Mariners have great depth in the OF currently but they also have some guys who are injury prone. I wouldn't be surprised if they added depth to platoon with Haniger, Arozarena, Robles, and Jrod. They could also swap these guys to DH occasionally to get them some rest. 

In a nutshell, the M's need a new infield and some relief pitchers so they can try and make a run at the division this season. The Astros have been slowly regressing as time is catching up with their aging and expensive players. 2025 may be the last chance for the Ms to win the division before they have serious contracts to consider with their pitchers and catcher.

Seahawks Disappointing 2023 Season: What's Next?

It is difficult to summarize this season in a few words or pictures but I think the below captures it well.  After the Seahawks defense laid another terrible performance on the field and got a lucky win, the young players, such as Tariq "Riq" Woolen, think it's worthy of an immature celebration despite the fact they were eliminated from playoff contention. 

Credit: Fox NFL

Let's summarize another 9-8 season where the Seahawks needed a win and Green Bay loss, again, to be able to sneak into the playoffs. After a surprising 2022 season, hopes were very high for this season. The Seahawks were projected to be #2 in the NFC West and top 4 in the NFC, with the Niners, Eagles, and Cowboys. Instead it seems the Rams are back on their upward trajectory while the Seahawks have leveled out in mediocre territory. 

The defense has been historically bad under Clint Hurtt and his horrible 3-4 scheme. It's hard to tell if it's scheme, play calling, personnel, and/or lack of execution. Perhaps all of the above given the historically bad results. Let's break down some stats to understand it better....

Seahawks Defensive rankings 2022 vs 2023: 

• Yards Given Up per Game: 5th Worst => 3rd Worst
• Plays per Game: 3rd Worst => Last
• First Downs per Game: 9th Worst => Last
• Time of Possession: 2nd Worst => Last
• Punts per Game: 6th Worst => Last
• Rush Defense: 3rd Worst => 2nd Worst
• Penalties per Game: 6th Worst => 5th Worst

The offense also trended down this year with players like Geno and Tyler having less productive seasons and the running game not being as successful as advertised. However, the offense going from top 10 to top 20 wasn't as big of a drop as the defense. The overall trend down, however, is very concerning.

Let's dip into the off-season and look at who's leaving, who should be replaced, and how to fill the gaps. 

Coaching: 

Pete can stay or go. The expectations for next season are low given it's difficult to turn an entire team around in a season and it's the last year on his contract. Given his age it seems like he will retire after the 2024 season and then the search for a new head coach can begin.

Both coordinators should be replaced. After 3 years of Shane Waldron the offense has been middle of the road and 2 years of Clint Hurtt being bottom of the league is a guaranteed firing. I would like to see the Seahawks bring in a more creative play caller on offense and a defensive coach who goes back to a 4-3 so we aren't using pass rushers in coverage and put more emphasis on stopping the run. 

Training staff and doctors could use some changes. Injuries continue to pile up on this team and seeing how poorly they handled Abe Lucas in the off-season makes me question who's evaluating players and recommending decisions. Hopefully Abe finds help outside the organization to get his knee better because the O-line is much better with Cross/Lucas on the ends.

Free Agents: 

• DE Leonard Williams: Re-sign (~3 years $44M)
• ILB Bobby Wagner: Re-sign (~2 years $10M)
• G Phil Haynes: Let go
• QB Drew Lock: Let go if Geno stays, re-sign if Geno leaves (1 year $4M)
• ILB Devin Bush: Let go
• LB Jordyn Brooks: Re-sign (~3 years $30M)
• C Evan Brown: Re-sign (1 year $3M)
• OLB Darrell Taylor: Let go (RFA so if minimum is offered elsewhere then match it)
• DE Mario Edwards: Let go
• G Damien Lewis: Let go
• TE Colby Parkinson: Let go
• RB DeeJay Dallas: Let go
• CB Michael Jackson: Re-sign (~2 years $4M)
• T Jake Curhan: Let go
• DT Myles Adams: Re-sign for minimum
• DE Joshua Onujiogu: Re-sign for minimum
• TE Brady Russell: Re-sign for minimum
• S Ty Okada: Re-sign for minimum
• LB Patrick O'Connell: Let go 

Non-FA's To Release or Trade: 

CB Riq Woolen: It's very clear Tariq doesn't care about winning or putting the team first. His only thoughts are being good at coverage and avoiding injury by not getting involved in tackles. His attitude on and off the field this season are not the type of culture the Seahawks should be a part of and they should seek some trade capital for him immediately while he still has value. 

SS Jamal Adams: I have never been a fan of the Adams trade and especially the huge extension they gave him. I don't understand Pete's love of this kid. He's a liability on the field and a cancer in the locker room. At this point the Seahawks need to trade or release him. If they need to package him with someone else so they can do a contract dump then so be it. 

FS Quandre Diggs: Most likely to stay but hasn't earned his starting roster spot this season. After getting paid Diggs has been lazy on the field. You can tell he's making business decisions by playing at half speed and avoiding hits where he doesn't have the advantage. He's often coming in late to scrums instead of being the first to initiate contact. I do appreciate his leadership in the locker room shaking his head at the young kids who don't care about winning, but overall it's a competition and starting spots need to be earned, not automatically retained. 

WR Tyler Lockett: I love Tyler but it's clear at the end of the season he can't keep up anymore. He's sucking oxygen after every drive, isn't getting as open as he used to, and falls down immediately when he makes a catch to avoid getting hit. It's also clear he's growing his relationships and business outside of football given the amount of articles I'm seeing about him doing real estate. Again, I love Tyler, have his autograph, and want him to have a good ending to his career in Seattle, but I think it's time for him to retire and enjoy his non-football life so JSN, Bobo, and others get to step up.

2024 NFL Draft: 

The unfortunate side of winning the last game of the year is the Seahawks dropping 2 draft spots to #16 overall. The Seahawks also traded some picks for players (such as 2nd and 5th for Leonard Williams) so they are left with 7 picks overall (1st, two 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th). 

Draft needs: The Seahawks need to target QB, FS, RB, WR, G, T, and ILB. 

Overall Expectations: 

For 2024 I am not expecting much of a difference in the Seahawks results. However, I am expecting big changes to the roster and coaching staff. If no major changes are made it's safe to expect another disappointing season and a not so promising future. The important thing is to make the necessary changes to modify the team's trajectory back to heading up so they can hit a playoff run in 2025.

Seattle Mariners 2023 Season Comes to Disappointing End

The Mariners disappointing season came to an abrupt end. The Mariners, once again, got eliminated from post-season contention in the final week of the regular season, after their promising 2022 season and anticipation from fans to return to playoffs.

Last season I was very critical of the team's bad coaching, ownership, and management. I still feel the team is winning despite the coaching and team management. The obvious holes from last season were not addressed at all and the Mariners decided a few bad free agent signings in the off-season, and a very bad mid-season trade, would somehow improve the team's chances. Instead it completely killed the morale of the fans and players.

I still believe the Mariners need to bring in an actual manager with actual championship coaching experience. For instance, Kris Negron won a championship as the head coach of the Rainiers and should be given a chance. I believe he understands how to build a lineup, how to position the defense on every play, when to pull pitchers, and who to put in for key situations. I no longer believe the team supports Servais. As the season was nearing an end several players came out against the coaching in frustration to some questionable calls, mostly involving pitching decisions. The one thing he had going for him was being a players coach, but if he's no longer that either I'm confident that he needs to go.

Credit: MLB.com

Last year I focused on relief pitching, defense, coaching, and finding an all-star middle infielder in free agency as target areas for the Mariners to focus on. I saw the Mariners actually regress, and that is not want you want to see as a fan whose team made the post-season the year before. Instead of signing a big name middle infielder and bat to be DH or corner OF, they signed a handful of washed up players in Wong, La Stella, and Pollock. By the end of the season none of those guys were still on the team because of how awful they were. Additionally, they traded their closer Seawald to a team who is now in the World Series. If they simply kept their closer they most likely would've made the playoffs. 

Let's dig in to how the Mariners can shake off a bad season and make a championship caliber team in 2024. 

1) Getting On Base and Moving Base Runners

In 2023 the M's improved from .230 to .242 and were middle of the league on OBP. While this is an improvement from the previous season, but it's still not good enough to be a playoff contender. They had the second most strikeouts in the league and the plate discipline needs to be an off-season target. Additionally, the Mariners were horrible at sacrifices and lost multiple extra inning games because they were unable to score the free runner on 2nd. 

2) Coaching

Coaching comes down to developing the talent, improving the team, and making the right decisions during key moments. I believe the Mariners have done a very good job at developing their talent and a horrible job at improving the team and making good key decisions. 

Like I say every year, Servais has a history of making bad decisions when it comes to starting lineups, defensive substitutions, sacrificing runners over, defensive alignments, and management of pitchers. 

The team's struggles against better teams, lack of consistency, and inability to manufacture runs when they need to, really comes down to the manager. Servais needs to focus more on small ball. Good teams know how to get on base and move runners, which is 100% on the coaching staff who'd rather lead the league in strikeouts just to have a few home runs. 

3) Roster Improvements

The Mariners need to replace a couple key positions and bolster their bullpen for next season. They have key decisions to make in corner OF as well as 2B. They also have a couple RP spots to consider, along with needing a reliable closer. 

I'm skeptical that the Mariners will make any big moves after hearing Dipoto tell fans that we are lucky to win 53% of our games and insinuated that he has no consideration for making big acquisitions. Dipoto says the same thing every year and it scares any potential major players from signing with Seattle, which is why they always have to get players via trades.

Players Who are Free Agents: Who to re-sign and who to let go

• Teoscar Hernandez - starting RF, Teo was one of the best hitters on the team but given how expensive he is ($14M), the amount of strikeouts he has, and the fact he's UFA, I'm shocked the M's didn't trade him mid-season for someone with team control. - (should let go)
• Tom Murphy - backup C, Murphy is injury prone and streaky. The M's can find a better backup C. - (should let go)
• Didi Gregorious - backup SS, he hardly plays and is barely major league quality. - (should let go)
• Tommy Milone - SP, Milone is more of a AAA player and should be let go. (should let go)
• Dominic Leone - RP, Leone is a terrible relief pitcher that you only want to use in blowouts to eat up innings. - (should let go)

What should the Mariners do to replace the few pieces that are leaving, as well as bolstering their lineup to be more successful and make a championship run? Here's a few areas they can look at: 

Weak or Missing Positions: 

• 2B/SS: The Mariners don't really have an all-star middle infielder. J.P. is teetering on the edge of being an all-star and opposite of him has been a revolving door of sub-par players. The Mariners need to serious look at signing a major middle infielder or trading one of their many SP's for one.

• RP: The Mariners had a top 5 bullpen in 2022 and then lost multiple big arms in the off-season and via trades. for the second straight season and will be keeping a majority of their relievers if they want. The M's are now lacking good consistent arms outside of Munoz and Brash who are incredibly overused.

• Corner OF: The Mariners are most likely losing Teoscar and don't have any suitable backups in the corner OF outside of a couple mediocre players in Kelenic and Canzone. There will be a bunch of good OF free agents and potential trades available should the M's finally be willing to pay some big name hitters. 

• DH: I have to admit the M's revolving door of below average hitters at DH needs to stop. They need to find a big bat in free agency who can hit in cleanup. No more experiments like Mike Ford. They need an every day bat who's either a solid DH, or is a very good hitter at a position where the M's have better defenders. 

In a nutshell, the M's need a new coach, they need a couple good bullpen arms and a couple big bats, and ownership/GM needs to utilize the plethora of extra SP's they have to go get some of those solved if they can't find it in free agency.

Seahawks 2022 Surprise Season Ends: Looking Forward to 2023

   

Another Seattle Seahawks season has come to an end but this one felt different from many past seasons. The Seahawks did the impossible, despite being slated to finish dead last in their division and bottom 10 in the league, they surpassed all expectations and made it to the playoffs. 

Unfortunately, much like their neighbors the Mariners, their magical season came to an end, but they have the ability to improve on this season greatly through the draft, trades, and free agent (FA) acquisitions so it's time to look forward to 2023. 

The Seahawks have a huge set of decisions ahead in how they want to improve their team. For starters they'll have to start with the QB position, where Geno Smith had the best season in his 10 year career and is currently a free agent who will demand a huge pay bump. Do they pay Geno what he's now worth? Do they let him walk? Will Geno give them a team friendly deal? Do they draft or sign a QB?

On top of the QB decision the Seahawks will need to figure out what to do with the #5 overall draft pick gifted to them by the Broncos. Do they trade it for a player? Do they trade it for more picks? Do they use it to get a once in a generation talent? 

Finally the Seahawks will have to address their defense, which was abysmal under first year DC Clint Hurtt, who made the controversial decision to change the decade old Pete Carroll scheme from a 4-3 cover 3 D into a 3-4 D. The end result was the inability to stop the run, along with a bunch of rookie mistakes in coverage. Should the Seahawks change coaches again? Should they change scheme? Should they make big changes at key defensive positions?

Credit: NFL & Seattle Seahawks

Let's dive into who the Seahawks might keep, who they might let go, and which spots they need to fill to come back stronger next season. Here are the free agents in order of who they might re-sign, with the most notable players first. 

Free Agents: Who to keep and who to let go. When I evaluate this I tend to lean towards the best ability is availability. I also ensure players salaries don't wildly exceed what they're worth so the team can continue to add the pieces it needs to contend without salary cap issues. 

Example: I'd love to re-sign Neal but he's plagued with injuries and will demand a better contract due to having one of the best seasons in the league at strong safety. Therefore, letting him test free agency seems ideal since the Seahawks have 4 safeties hitting free agency and can probably only re-sign 2 of them.

• Geno Smith: Re-sign for 3 years ~$60M. He's in the twilight of his career and has only had 1 productive season, but he's the best option Seattle has right now as long as he signs a team friendly deal. QB's around his age and skill are making on average $35M/yr. If he demands this amount then the team would put themselves in cap risk and would need to consider other options in free agency, the trade market, and the draft. (79.8 PFF rated QB)

• Cody Barton: Re-sign for 2 years ~$4M total. Cody had the first full season of his career but was a huge downgrade over Bobby. Seattle made a huge mistake letting go of Bobby as it's clear BWagz was one of the highest rated ILB's in the league and Barton was bottom of the pack. He struggled with coverage, finding the right run gaps, tackling, and had a hard time getting off blocks. That being said Seattle is not deep at ILB and Barton could prove that another year learning from his mistakes could lead to a bounce back season, as long as the price is right. I would not given him starter ILB money and would look at FA's instead if that's the case. (63.7 PFF rated LB)

• Travis Homer: Re-sign for 2 years ~$2M. Homer's season was cut short due to injuries and sharing play time with other backups, but he still shows flashes of brilliance when he's healthy and gets a chance. He's a good 3rd down back capable of occasionally busting out a large gain and does well in pass blocking. He's also still young at 24. The hope is he's willing to come back on a friendly deal for a couple more seasons as the Seahawks have little veteran depth at RB. (63.2 PFF rated RB)

• Tyler Ott: Re-sign for 2 years ~$3M. Ott spent the entire season on IR and was replaced by Tinker. However, Ott is younger and more consistent than Tinker so if his injuries are behind him it would make more sense to go back to Ott who has more experience with the existing special teams unit. (5th best LS in the league based on critics. LS have no PFF rankings)

• Teez Tabor: Re-sign for 1 year ~$1M. Tabor played well as the 3rd string safety this season due to key injuries to Adams and Neal and poor play from Jones. He's a good backup option for Seattle again since he'll be relatively cheap and has experience in the system at both safety positions. (58.5 PFF rated S)

• Jonathan Abram:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$2M. Abram was a good stop gap when injuries piled up at strong safety, but with Adams coming back I'm curious if a former first round pick will take a pay cut and play the backup role. That being said if he accepts a one year veteran minimum deal then I'd choose him over Neal as the backup since he is younger, far less banged up, and would be more affordable. (49.7 PFF rated S)

• Tanner Muse:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Muse has been good on special teams and a decent backup at LB. He knows the system and outplayed Barton statistically in his limited experience. He's a restricted FA so the Seahawks should be able to get him at a minimum deal. (69.3 PFF rated LB)

• Penny Hart:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Hart has not been a good backup WR for the Seahawks but it's hard to ignore that he does have potential for the price. He's still relatively young at 26 and is a restricted FA so the Seahawks can get him on a minimum prove it deal for another season. (55.5 PFF rated WR)

• Jon Rhattigan:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Rhattigan was a beast in pre-season but never got to see the field in regular play. He could finally take the leap this season and perform on special teams and be a decent backup at LB. He knows the system but hasn't had any real NFL experience yet. He's an ERFA so the Seahawks should be able to get him at a minimum deal. (unrated due to no play time)

• Ryan Neal: Gone, ~$2.5-3M/yr saved. This is difficult because I love the energy Neal brings and he was one of the highest rated safeties in the league when healthy despite being a backup. Unfortunately injuries have piled up and he's going to want to make more money next season to capitalize on his tremendous year. The Seahawks can't afford to pay a backup SS starting money when they already have Adams. He currently makes $920k/yr but could be in line for 2-3x that next year. (85.6 PFF rated S)

• Austin Blythe: Gone, $4M/yr saved. Austin was ok this year but once teams figured him out he got destroyed by most DT's in run and pass blocking. He's hardly an upgrade over what the Seahawks had in Fuller despite his much higher contract. (51.2 PFF rated C)

• Poona Ford : Gone, $6.2M/yr saved. Poona was amazing as an undersized nose tackle his first couple years in the league. Unfortunately once he got paid, and had to adjust to a new scheme, his production fell off a cliff, especially for his contract. Seahawks need better at DT. (56.2 PFF rated DT)

• Rashaad Penny: Gone, $5.75M/yr saved. I said it last season and I was proven correct so I'll say it again. This is tough because Penny is explosive when healthy but he spent his entire career being hurt and doing next to nothing overall. The Seahawks run game demands availability and he isn't it. FA and draft have a lot of options to consider for a backup to K9. (70.2 PFF rated RB)

• L.J. Collier: Gone, $2.7M/yr saved. Collier hasn't lived up to his draft potential and Seattle has wanted to get rid of him his entire career, so they clearly regret the pick. It's obvious that he's physically talented but isn't willing to put in the work to be a good DL in the league. (39.2 PFF rated DL)

• Phil Haynes: Gone, $2.5M/yr saved. Haynes has been a career backup at G and hasn't shown any flashes of ever being a potential starter, nor being a reliable backup when a starter goes down. (51.2 PFF rated G) 

• Nick Bellore: Gone, $2.2M/yr saved. Bellore is a beloved name in Seattle but his production at FB and special teams have all fallen off. I believe he's going to retire. (47.3 PFF rated FB) 

• Artie Burns: Gone, $2M/yr saved. Burns has been a consistently good CB his entire career and would've been an automatic plug-in for Reed who left for the Jets. For some reason Pete decided that Jackson was the better starting CB and sat Burns all season. I don't see the Seahawks re-signing a veteran CB when the team prefers to start their inexperienced CB's instead. (69.5 PFF rated CB)

• Drew Lock: Gone, $1.75M/yr saved. Lock is a fan favorite because of his fun attitude and his ability to not be afraid to get the ball downfield. However, his playstyle is in opposition to what Pete wants in a game manager who limits possessions and turnovers. I see the Seahawks picking up a QB in the draft and they never hold onto more than 2 QB's on the active roster. If he came back it would be on a friendly short term deal and he'd have to compete with a rookie for the backup job. (60.0 PFF rated QB) 

• Marquise Goodwin: Gone, $1.2M/yr saved. Goodwin was a pleasant surprise this season as Geno's third favorite target. He individually saved multiple games with breakout performances. Unfortunately he's near the end of his career and is plagued with injuries which limits his upside. The Seahawks already have a couple options for their third WR on the active roster. (64.5 PFF rated WR)

• Kyle Fuller: Gone, $1.2M/yr saved. I would've cut Fuller after last season but for some reason Seattle brought him back to be backup C once more. He got very limited playtime behind Blythe but he didn't improve at all in his limited snaps. (55.6 PFF rated C)

• Justin Coleman: Gone, $1.1M/yr saved. I was surprised to see Coleman come back despite Seattle being deep at CB this year and wanting to reserve all play time for rookies. He added depth but didn't get much action at all. Much like Burns I don't see them bringing him back again. (59.3 PFF rated CB)

• Carson Tinker: Gone, $1M/yr saved. Tinker did well in place of Ott this season but he was only elevated off the practice squad due to injury. I don't see him getting preference over Ott when he's older and less experienced at the position. If nobody else signs him I hope the Seahawks get him back on the practice squad. (unrated LS on PFF)

• Josh Jones: Gone, $1M/yr saved. Jones should've been cut. His play cost the Seahawks several games this season. He's constantly out of position and misses tackles like it's his job. Abrams was a much better backup to Neal and even Tabor did better. (52.0 PFF rated S)

I would also let the following players explore free agency and only bring them back on the practice squad if nobody else picks them up: 

• Cullen Gillaspia
• Isaiah Mack
• Darryl Johnson

My projected re-signs would cost ~$30M per year and the players gone would free up ~$30M thus breaking even. Hitting in the draft and FA to replace players leaving with cheaper alternatives would be the best way to improve the holes in the team currently.

Seahawks top priorities in FA and draft:
G, C, DT, DE, ILB, RB, WR, QB

Potential FA signings to fill top priorities:

• OL: Depends on who the Seahawks keep around but most likely will lose 2 Centers and 1 backup G. Additionally, Lewis and Jackson are FA's next season.
• C: Ethan Pocic is actually available and just had the best year of his career. Perhaps the new system will serve him better than the old one under Russ. Some other good options at C are McGovern, Bradbury, Brendel, and Levin.

• DL: Seahawks are full of DE and DT who have all underperformed this season. They'll need to shore up the trenches if they intend to stop the run next season. 
• Edge: Right now the Seahawks aren't losing any starting rushers but the existing lot isn't getting the job done. I'd like to see the Seahawks either pick up one of the amazing rushers available in FA (Quinn, Ngakoue, Smoot, Ingram, Houston, Okoronkwo) or trade for one, while trading away one of their existing DE's for draft compensation.
• DT: The Seahawks have plenty of DT depth this season, even if they lose Ford, but they are shaky at stopping the run unless Woods is in. I'd like to see them trade away a DT for compensation or release one and pickup one in FA or the draft who can supplement Woods.

• LB: Let's face it, the Seahawks linebacking core without Wagner has been a disappointment. Meanwhile Bobby went on and had the 3rd best season of his career. Barton isn't getting the job done, BBK had a near career ending injury, and there isn't much depth for a natural ILB in the current scheme and roster.
• Anthony Walker or Tremaine Edmunds are my targets to replace Barton as starting ILB. Walker is more intriguing because he'll command half the salary as Edmunds. If Barton re-signs for cheap then I can see him competing in camp for the starting ILB role against a FA signing or draft pick.

• RB: The Seahawks lost Carson last season and could lose Penny and Homer this season. This would leave Walker and Dallas as the only RB's with experience left on the roster. Given both their recent injuries I'd say the Seahawks not only need to draft a RB but need to pickup a couple in FA as well, or possibly trade one of their mediocre players for a quality backup RB who is relatively young but also has starter experience.
• This season's FA market is full of RB's. I'd look at Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, D' Onta Foreman, Boston Scott, Samaje Perine, Ron Jones, Miles Sanders, D'ernest Johnson, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, James Robinson, Ty Johnson, Myles Gaskin, or Marlon Mack

• WR: The Hawks aren't losing their top 2 WR's to FA so this isn't really a big need BUT there's a good opportunity here to trade DK Metcalf for draft capital and to fill his void with a cheap veteran who can still produce. I still feel like the Seahawks should get rid of him while he has value. Tyler is getting older and more injury prone and the Seahawks may lose 2 backup WR's that need replacing.
• There's a bunch of potential WR's on this year's FA list including DJ Chark, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Deonte Harty, Cam Sims, Jamison Crowder, Sammy Watkins, Zach Pascal, Keelan Cole, Breshad Perriman, Mecole Hardman, Rashard Higgins, Deandre Carter, Phillip Dorsett, Marquez Callaway, Darius Slayton, and Scotty Miller to name quite a few.

• QB: The Hawks could lose Geno if he demands more than they can afford. Based on his record setting season he could easily earn top 10 QB money which may force the Seahawks to turn to FA to find a stop gap until they can draft and develop their next QB. This year has some intriguing names available for less than $20M if Geno walks.
• Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jimmy G, Teddy 2 Gloves, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Tyler Huntley, and Gardner Minshew

Draft: 
The Hawks are now loaded with draft picks the next couple seasons due to fleecing other teams, most notably the Broncos. Currently they have 9 total picks in rounds 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6. This includes the #5 overall pick which could result in a trade down for more picks. There's a chance for more picks if they choose to trade a current player and they could also gain compensatory picks if players leave for big contracts elsewhere. 

Expecting them to draft OL (G and/or C), S, DL (DT and DE), RB, LB, WR and QB. 

I expect the Guards to remain the same next season so my hope is the Seahawks draft someone mid-late rounds to groom as a potential starter next season.. 

Safety needs to be for the future as Adams and Diggs won't both be on the team in a couple years.

DL is a huge priority and the Seahawks need a run stopping DT and a great pass rusher/edge setter at DE.

RB will be for depth and to be a potential starter in a few seasons when Walker inevitably is spent like Carson was.

LB will be for depth as well as to challenge the current starting roles which were weak this year.

WR will be for depth and to compete with the WR3/WR4 spot.

QB will be a potential backup to Geno or could compete for starting job if Geno walks.

Coaching staff changes: 
The Seahawks have been relatively quiet on potential coaching changes. While the offense had a few bad performances against good teams, and the defense was terrible most of the season, I could see putting most of the blame on the team being young and adapting to new schemes and players around them. I could see most of the important coaching positions remaining the same another season to wait and see if it was really the players or coaches/scheme.

Projected starters: This is assuming there's no major trades or moves made this off-season.

Offense:
QB: Geno Smith
RB: Ken Walker
WR1: Tyler Lockett - 
WR2: DK Metcalf - (there's a chance he's traded for a 1st round pick)
WR3: FA signing
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Damien Lewis
C: FA signing or draft
RG: Gabe Jackson
RT: Abe Lucas
TE: Noah Fant

Defense: (swap back to 4-3)
RE: Darrell Taylor
DT: Shelby Harris & Al Woods
LE: Uchena Nwosu
CBs: Tre Brown & Tariq Woolen (Coby Bryant in nickel formation)
LBs: Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, & Boye Mafe
SS: Jamal Adams
FS: Quandre Diggs

Mariners 2022: Magic Season Ends

The Mariners magical run in 2022 has come to a bittersweet end. The upside is the team overachieved this year and made it to the ALDS, while hosting their first playoff game in 21 years. Most people, outside the circle of overly positive fans, believed the Mariners were a year away from having a scary playoff team but some unexpected acquisitions and breakouts happened in 2022 to help make a push for the playoffs. 

Let's not gloss over the fact that the AL was weaker this year and that the MLB didn't expand the playoffs because the Mariners actually finished with the exact record that they had in 2021. Last year  they barely missed the playoffs due to the Red Sox and White Sox being good last year but both of those teams have since faltered.

While I have been critical of the team this year, it's mostly due to bad coaching/management of the team, and less on the players. I believe in the passion and desire these players have to win, but I often feel they are winning despite the coaching and game management. 

There's a large part of me who believes Kris Negron would be a better game manager since he actually won a championship as the head coach of the Rainiers. I believe he understands how to build a lineup, how to position the defense on every play, when to pull pitchers, and who to put in for key situations. I believe Servais is a great players coach and a fan/media favorite at the podium, but he cost the Mariners a lot of games in his tenure with bad decisions, including all 3 games against the Astros in the ALDS, 2 of which were easy wins that he faltered away. Servais should be moved to a new position as someone in the front office for player relations or something similar. 

Credit: MLB.com

Last year I focused on pitching, defense, coaching, and free agency as target areas for the Mariners to improve. I saw improvements in all but 1 of those areas (coaching) which is promising. Let's dig in to how the Mariners can continue their rise to success and make a championship caliber team in 2023. The last time the Mariners hosted the All-Star game they also tied the record for most wins in a season, so the expectations are high next year.

1) Getting On Base and Moving Base Runners

In 2022 the Mariners were 3rd from the bottom in batting average at an abysmal .230 team average. They were also well below league average for runners left on base, ops, strikeouts, and team sacrifices.

Since the MLB season is very long, teams can live and die by the long ball to survive. However, when you play tougher opponents, especially in the playoffs, the ability to force pitch counts, get on base, and manufacture runs is paramount. 

It was extremely embarrassing in the ALDS when the M's players were swinging at garbage pitches trying to be heroes, when simple walks and base hits would've won all 3 games that they lost. The players and coaches need to stop relying on the home run to win them games and start focusing on being patient at the plate, hitting away from the shift, bunting to advance runners, hitting sac flies with someone on third, and choking up to put the ball in play when behind in the count.

2) Consistency

In 2022 the Mariners started with a sub .500 record then had a staggering 14 game winning streak followed up by a hit or miss second half of the season. Being consistent is key in baseball, especially at the end of the season and into the playoffs. It helps to be hot at the right time but you have to also put together a solid season to even make the playoffs. 

The best way the Mariners can be consistent is to beat who they are supposed to beat by not underestimating their opponents, and play their tougher opponents harder to avoid blowouts. It's very clear the road through the AL is still through their division rivals in Houston so they need to find a way to unseat the perennial powerhouse. That starts with more consistency and better coaching, which we'll get into next.

3) Coaching

Coaching comes down to developing the talent, improving the team, and making the right decisions during key moments. While I credit Servais for back to back 90 win seasons, I feel like most of the kudos goes to the players who are winning despite bad management. 

Like I said last year, and every year, Servais has a history of making bad decisions when it comes to starting lineups, defensive substitutions, sacrificing runners over, defensive alignments, and management of pitchers. The one thing Scott is good at is capturing the admiration of fans, media, and the players for being an overly positive guy. 

The team's struggles against better teams, lack of consistency, and inability to manufacture runs when they need to really comes down to the manager. Servais needs to focus more on small ball. The home runs can be fun, but good teams know how to get on base and move runners, which is 100% on the coaching staff to emphasize over swinging for the fences every at bat. 

Servais seems to play the lottery with his lineups as the players hitting 1-9 have changed almost every single game of the season, which is wild. The Astros on the other hand have their lineup solidified and are the best team in the AL year after year. 

On top of that Servais seems to pull pitchers too early or too late, he overuses arms from the bullpen, he makes calls using baseless analytics instead of the flow of the game, and he is too reliant on power hitting over small ball.

The coaching changes going into 2023 look fairly minimal but I'd like to see Negron promoted to be more involved with managing the team. Negron won a championship in AAA and has proven he knows what it takes to manage playoff caliber games. 

Most analysts still place Servais in the bottom half of MLB manager rankings which is saying something after the team had back to back 90 win seasons.

4) Roster Improvements

The Mariners need to replace a couple key positions and bolster their pitching for next season. They have key decisions to make in corner OF as well as 2B. They also have a SP spot and a couple RP spots to consider, along with needing a reliable closer. 

Overall the Mariners are average at just about every position in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) so they should be open to considerations at most positions. 

I'm skeptical that the Mariners will make any big moves after hearing Dipoto (who's no longer the GM) still state they aren't willing to sign a better SS and/or move Crawford to 2B. Dipoto said the same thing last year and it scared any potential major middle infielder from signing with Seattle.

Players Who are Free Agents: Who to re-sign and who to let go

• Carlos Santana - starting DH, Santana had some very clutch doubles and HR's during the season but he's aging and expensive ($10.5M) for hitting for such a low avg (.202) - (should let go)
• Adam Frazier - starting 2B, Frazier was inconsistent all season, a rather expensive utility man ($8M) and was a shell of his Allstar self (.305 to .238 avg) - (should let go)
• Mitch Haniger - starting RF, can't stay healthy his entire career and is inconsistent (only 2 good seasons out of 6), he's expected to ask for a raise next season ($7M to $14M) - (should let go)
• Matt Boyd - SP/RP, hometown kid, Boyd contributed very little to the M's this season (only 10 appearances) but put up stellar stats. He's earned a re-sign. (should re-sign ~$5.5M)
• Curt Casali - backup C, acquired mid-season instead of a real bat. Ate up a playoff roster spot that could've been used for a pitcher. - (should let go)
• Chris Flexen - 6th SP/long relief, he just had the second best year of his career. Selflessly accepted long relief roll in bullpen when asked. M's could use his arm again next year in case of injuries or other players leaving. He can fill in for spot starts and long relief. - (should use club option $4M)
• Marcus Wilson - minor league OF, filled in temporarily for 3 games and seems to have been a 2nd round draft bust from 8 years ago. - (should let go or resign to minors only)
• Roenis Elias - SP/RP, reliable middle reliever who was brought back temporarily due to injuries. Given his age he's most likely done. -  (should let go)
• Matt Koch - RP, while under team control for another year and 3 years of arbitration left he's been unproductive for the Mariners. - (should let go)
• Ashur Tolliver - minor league RP, didn't make an appearance this year and hasn't pitched MLB in 5 years. Had no success against MLB hitters in his career. - (should let go)
• Alen Hanson - minor league 2B, hasn't had an MLB appearance in 3 years and his career numbers aren't good. - (should let go) 
• Pat Light - minor league RP, posted extremely bad numbers against MLB hitters in his limited experience. - (should let go)

What should the Mariners do to replace the few pieces that are leaving, as well as bolstering their lineup to be more successful and make a championship run? Here's a few areas they can look at: 

Weak or Missing Positions: 

• 2B/SS: Frazier should be gone, and with the bevy of middle infielders who are either available or interested in playing for a contender, the Mariners should be open to finding a quality middle infielder and then figuring out how they best mesh with JP Crawford.

• Big name options: Carlos Correa. Jean Segura. Trea Turner. Xander Bogaerts. Dansby Swanson. Tim Anderson. Jose Iglesias.

• RP: The Mariners had a top 5 bullpen for the second straight season and will be keeping a majority of their relievers if they want. However, the M's are lacking a consistent holder and closer. They do have arms to continue to fill those roles, but it would be nice to have someone who can come in and consistently be dominant 99% of the time to end a game.

• Some good FA's available: Edwin Diaz. David Robertson. Jose Leclerc. Kenley Jansen. Rafael Montero. Seth Lugo. Brad Hand. 

• Corner OF: The Mariners stand a chance to lose Mitch Haniger. Meanwhile Jared Kelenic hasn't been the highly touted player he was supposed to be and Kyle Lewis has no knees at this point. Winker is injured, not playing well, and butting heads with management. The Mariners have nobody left in the organization who can fill those roles so they need to sign, or trade for, a quality OF. They could also roll the dice with what they have and make a mid-season move with a basement team offloading talent.
• Some good FA's available: Aaron Judge. Andrew Benintendi. Michael Brantley. Corey Dickerson, Brandon Nimmo. 

Mariners 2022 Trade Deadline Opinions: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

It has been 2 months since I last wrote about the Mariners. While I am cautiously optimistic about this clubs' chances, it's hard to ignore a 11 game win streak, so let's break that down and then look at what's next to see if we truly believe the team is on the rise. 

In the last 11 games the Mariners have beaten the Nationals 3x, Blue Jays 4x, Padres 2x, and the A's 2x. During this time the M's have dealt with injuries and suspensions which does make it impressive, but here's why I'm not entirely sold on the "WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES" rhetoric I've been seeing online. Let's remember the Mariners had the exact same record last season at this time and ended up missing the playoffs.

The teams the M's beat are all in a huge slump. Two teams in particular who are good on paper would be the Jays and Padres. The Blue Jays are so bad recently that they fired their manager mid-season. The Padres have lost twice as many games as they've won in the last month. The Nationals and A's are bottom of the barrel teams who are tanking this season. Therefore, the wins don't seem as impressive as wins would be against teams like the Astros and Yankees, who are coming up next week and will be a true test for the team.

On top of all this you have to look at run differential. 6 of the 11 games were 1 run wins which were a crack of the bat away from losing. I could look back on all 11 games and think of some jams pitchers got lucky to get out of, which could've gone horribly wrong. I do give kudos to the pitchers and defense for not allowing that to happen. 

Now let's look at the trade deadline to see if the team truly wants to make the playoffs. The Mariners need to be buyers if they care at all about having a championship roster as they keep claiming to want. 

The Mariners have holes everywhere in their lineup. They have the 7th worst hitting average, 10th worst runs batted in, 9th most strikeouts, and 7th worst runs scored in the league. Most notably is their production in the outfield (which should be addressed when KLew and/or Hanniger come back) and 2B (which they have no current answer for).

What's saving Seattle is their pitching which is 5th best in ERA and 7th best in WHIP. What's even more impressive is the bullpen. From the 8th inning onward the M's are #1 in the league in WHIP and #2 in ERA and average against. The old saying goes, pitching and defense wins championships and the M's seem setup to support this so far. The only thing that worries me here is that the M's have worse pitching stats when ahead than when trailing or tied. Additionally, they are lacking quality back of the rotation pitching and 7th/8th inning arms that other teams fear. Kirby's innings will be limited the rest of the season, injuries are possible, and Flexen + Milone are not exactly putting fear into opposing lineups.

All this said I'm recommending the Mariners put together deals for a quality #3 starter, a setup man in the bullpen, and a 2B. I know the team can't mess with chemistry like they did previously. Let's look at our options here, as well as potential MLB caliber players they can trade away. 

Starting with who can be traded I think the Mariners could trade any of the following players (not all) along with some prospects that other teams may be interested in: Frazier, Moore, Trammell, Kelenic, Santana, Flexen, Upton, Lewis, White, Haggerty, Castillo, Giles, Milone, and/or Sadler.

For a quality #3 starter the Mariners will have to look at teams who are sub .500 and wanting to rebuild. Usually this means offloading a veteran or a guy with 1-2 years left on their current contract. 

2B: Harold Castro (Tigers), Michael Stefanic (Angels), Cesar Hernandez (Nats), Ketel Marte (Dbacks)

SP: Michael Pineda (Tigers), Brady Singer (Royals), Cole Irvin (A's), Noah Syndergaard (Angels), Luis Castillo (Reds)

RP: Jose Cisnero (Tigers), Andrew Chafin (Tigers), Taylor Clarke (Royals), Joel Payamps (Royals), Domingo Acevedo (A's), Mychal Givens (Cubs), Keynan Middleton (Dbacks)

All that being said, if the Mariners get at least 1 difference maker on their roster before the deadline then you know they are serious about making the playoffs. If they trade away a key player and anger the locker room again (*cough* Graveman) then I'll know they aren't serious about ever winning a championship. I just hope to attend a playoff baseball game in Seattle sometime in my life.