It has been 2 months since I last wrote about the Mariners. While I am cautiously optimistic about this clubs' chances, it's hard to ignore a 11 game win streak, so let's break that down and then look at what's next to see if we truly believe the team is on the rise.
In the last 11 games the Mariners have beaten the Nationals 3x, Blue Jays 4x, Padres 2x, and the A's 2x. During this time the M's have dealt with injuries and suspensions which does make it impressive, but here's why I'm not entirely sold on the "WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES" rhetoric I've been seeing online. Let's remember the Mariners had the exact same record last season at this time and ended up missing the playoffs.
The teams the M's beat are all in a huge slump. Two teams in particular who are good on paper would be the Jays and Padres. The Blue Jays are so bad recently that they fired their manager mid-season. The Padres have lost twice as many games as they've won in the last month. The Nationals and A's are bottom of the barrel teams who are tanking this season. Therefore, the wins don't seem as impressive as wins would be against teams like the Astros and Yankees, who are coming up next week and will be a true test for the team.
On top of all this you have to look at run differential. 6 of the 11 games were 1 run wins which were a crack of the bat away from losing. I could look back on all 11 games and think of some jams pitchers got lucky to get out of, which could've gone horribly wrong. I do give kudos to the pitchers and defense for not allowing that to happen.
Now let's look at the trade deadline to see if the team truly wants to make the playoffs. The Mariners need to be buyers if they care at all about having a championship roster as they keep claiming to want.
The Mariners have holes everywhere in their lineup. They have the 7th worst hitting average, 10th worst runs batted in, 9th most strikeouts, and 7th worst runs scored in the league. Most notably is their production in the outfield (which should be addressed when KLew and/or Hanniger come back) and 2B (which they have no current answer for).
What's saving Seattle is their pitching which is 5th best in ERA and 7th best in WHIP. What's even more impressive is the bullpen. From the 8th inning onward the M's are #1 in the league in WHIP and #2 in ERA and average against. The old saying goes, pitching and defense wins championships and the M's seem setup to support this so far. The only thing that worries me here is that the M's have worse pitching stats when ahead than when trailing or tied. Additionally, they are lacking quality back of the rotation pitching and 7th/8th inning arms that other teams fear. Kirby's innings will be limited the rest of the season, injuries are possible, and Flexen + Milone are not exactly putting fear into opposing lineups.
All this said I'm recommending the Mariners put together deals for a quality #3 starter, a setup man in the bullpen, and a 2B. I know the team can't mess with chemistry like they did previously. Let's look at our options here, as well as potential MLB caliber players they can trade away.
Starting with who can be traded I think the Mariners could trade any of the following players (not all) along with some prospects that other teams may be interested in: Frazier, Moore, Trammell, Kelenic, Santana, Flexen, Upton, Lewis, White, Haggerty, Castillo, Giles, Milone, and/or Sadler.
For a quality #3 starter the Mariners will have to look at teams who are sub .500 and wanting to rebuild. Usually this means offloading a veteran or a guy with 1-2 years left on their current contract.
2B: Harold Castro (Tigers), Michael Stefanic (Angels), Cesar Hernandez (Nats), Ketel Marte (Dbacks)
SP: Michael Pineda (Tigers), Brady Singer (Royals), Cole Irvin (A's), Noah Syndergaard (Angels), Luis Castillo (Reds)
RP: Jose Cisnero (Tigers), Andrew Chafin (Tigers), Taylor Clarke (Royals), Joel Payamps (Royals), Domingo Acevedo (A's), Mychal Givens (Cubs), Keynan Middleton (Dbacks)
All that being said, if the Mariners get at least 1 difference maker on their roster before the deadline then you know they are serious about making the playoffs. If they trade away a key player and anger the locker room again (*cough* Graveman) then I'll know they aren't serious about ever winning a championship. I just hope to attend a playoff baseball game in Seattle sometime in my life.
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