I haven't written about the Mariners in almost 6 months but lots has been on my mind since my previous post. For starters I felt like they still didn't try to find a good closer, another good starter, and an all-star 3B. I have no ill-will with the current bullpen, starting rotation, or Suarez, but you can clearly tell, after a month into the season, that they could've made some better moves in the off-season.
This is just more proof that the Mariners front office is ok with having a cheap roster and putting a mediocre product on the field while hoping they over achieve enough to fill seats. Luckily for them there's still tons of hope and positive hype around the team, or perhaps people are just tired of sitting at home after the pandemic. Also kudos to the M's on their exclusive tv contracts that makes them a ton of money that they refuse to spend on players.
I give huge credit to the Mariners sales, marketing, and social media teams for keeping a positive spin on a franchise that has been sub-par for 20 years. The A's could take a clue from how the M's organization runs things because Seattle is in far worse shape than Oakland in terms of producing a good result (i.e. A's still can make playoffs), yet the A's fans are revolting.
Let's talk about the Mariners hot start, which they almost always have, and then their sudden turn to mediocrity to follow.
#1: Other teams were ill-prepared and the Mariners benefitted with a roster full of newly signed free agents and potentially young stars who were jumping out the gate and overperforming. We've seen this before in 2019 when they started 13-2 and then lost 21 out of 26 games over the next 2 months.
#2: Servais missed several series due to Covid and the roster benefitted from someone who actually knew how to manage a game correctly (i.e. setting a solid lineup, making the right defensive alignments and substitutions, and managing pitchers correctly). As soon as Servais returned the Mariners returned to losing in embarrassing fashion.
#3: The roster and lineup need some serious work. It doesn't take a baseball genius to understand you can't have half your lineup batting below the Mendoza line, and especially batting them in the top half of the order. Kelenic .127, Toro .160, Winker .186, Suarez .202, (credit to Frazier and Jrod getting barely above the line this week). I also am glad they finally sent down the failed Raleigh experiment after his average dropped to .083.
It also makes no sense to continually bring in pitchers from the bullpen with 4.00+ ERA's and 1.5+ WHIPs who consistently put people on base and give up runs (*cough* Festa, Ramirez, Steckenrider, Castillo) Nobody can have a perfect bullpen but you either make roster moves to remain competitive or you only bring in terrible pitchers in unwinnable games. Perhaps maybe the starters and relievers will find their way eventually.
How to turn things around?
Besides the obvious of everyone performing better, I think the Mariners have some tough decisions ahead. Maybe it's too early to overreact but it certainly feels like another year being added to the 20 year drought. Luckily for the Mariners MLB has expanded playoffs and the AL West is a little weak this year.
Tough decision 1: Remove Servais from game management. He's proven time and time again he cannot manage a game properly. He puts guys in weird spots in the lineup, he makes terrible in game decisions, and his pitcher management is non-existent. It's almost like he's rolling the dice out there.
Tough decision 2: Send down the rookies (maybe not Jrod if he stays hot and umpires give him a chance at walking more). Sending down Raleigh was the right call and when KLew or Haniger are back they definitely need to send Kelenic down.
I want everyone to understand something about baseball rookie development. This isn't like basketball or football where a rookie can come in and do amazing right away. Big league hitters and big league pitchers have a wealth of skill and knowledge that they can use to take advantage of younger players. They also tend to have umpires on their side as seen in the case of 19 Jrod strikeouts while looking on borderline pitches. Rookies need at least a full season at every minor league level to progressively get better. I also want to explain what it's like to be the best at something then to be thrown into a pool of people as good as or better than you. It is a confidence shattering situation that you want to avoid as a GM/coach/player.
I didn't understand the rush to bring up Brash, Jrod, Kelenic, and Raleigh prematurely, especially after they were denied almost an entire season in 2020 to develop themselves. All of them needed another year in AAA to prove themselves. All the M's did was build these guys up to the fans and media and then immediately shatter their confidence. Imagine being the best at something, being worshipped for it from the organization/fans/media, and then being outclassed immediately? That is a huge mental thing to overcome and you can see it in these guys. I credit Jrod for bouncing back as he seems to be mentally tougher than the rest of them.
Tough decision 3: Mariners need to make pitching moves. I'd like to see Brash swapped out for a better starter they can acquire via trade (not Kirby because he needs time in AAA first). Brash is too wild and his 2.05 WHIP gets him into trouble. He benefitted early in the season with lucky double plays but when you put 2 people on base per inning then you're bound to eventually get rocked.
I'd also like to see more Swanson and Munoz out of the bullpen. Everyone is also happy Sewald is back from covid but they need to find a closer. Maybe it's another trade situation or maybe they need to try someone new in the 9th like Swanson who has a 0.00 ERA so far.
Easy decision: Change the offensive lineup to put your best hitters at the top. I'd like to see J.P Crawford lead off and I have been baffled all year as Servais continually put him in the bottom half of the lineup in most games. France should clearly be batting cleanup as he's the best slugger on the team and can drive in runs. I am ok with Frazier and Haniger rounding out the top 3 if both are healthy. Winker and Suarez need to prove they're the players the Mariners expected before they're allowed back into the top 4 of the lineup again.
Given history, the Mariners always start hot, then cool off, then go back and forth until the all-star break. After the break they again fall into a back and forth again and then end on a drought to miss the playoffs when they're playing meaningful games in September. I've seen it the last 20 years and don't expect it to change this season. I hope I'm wrong because I'd love to see playoff baseball in Seattle again someday.
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