Seahawks 2022 Surprise Season Ends: Looking Forward to 2023

   

Another Seattle Seahawks season has come to an end but this one felt different from many past seasons. The Seahawks did the impossible, despite being slated to finish dead last in their division and bottom 10 in the league, they surpassed all expectations and made it to the playoffs. 

Unfortunately, much like their neighbors the Mariners, their magical season came to an end, but they have the ability to improve on this season greatly through the draft, trades, and free agent (FA) acquisitions so it's time to look forward to 2023. 

The Seahawks have a huge set of decisions ahead in how they want to improve their team. For starters they'll have to start with the QB position, where Geno Smith had the best season in his 10 year career and is currently a free agent who will demand a huge pay bump. Do they pay Geno what he's now worth? Do they let him walk? Will Geno give them a team friendly deal? Do they draft or sign a QB?

On top of the QB decision the Seahawks will need to figure out what to do with the #5 overall draft pick gifted to them by the Broncos. Do they trade it for a player? Do they trade it for more picks? Do they use it to get a once in a generation talent? 

Finally the Seahawks will have to address their defense, which was abysmal under first year DC Clint Hurtt, who made the controversial decision to change the decade old Pete Carroll scheme from a 4-3 cover 3 D into a 3-4 D. The end result was the inability to stop the run, along with a bunch of rookie mistakes in coverage. Should the Seahawks change coaches again? Should they change scheme? Should they make big changes at key defensive positions?

Credit: NFL & Seattle Seahawks

Let's dive into who the Seahawks might keep, who they might let go, and which spots they need to fill to come back stronger next season. Here are the free agents in order of who they might re-sign, with the most notable players first. 

Free Agents: Who to keep and who to let go. When I evaluate this I tend to lean towards the best ability is availability. I also ensure players salaries don't wildly exceed what they're worth so the team can continue to add the pieces it needs to contend without salary cap issues. 

Example: I'd love to re-sign Neal but he's plagued with injuries and will demand a better contract due to having one of the best seasons in the league at strong safety. Therefore, letting him test free agency seems ideal since the Seahawks have 4 safeties hitting free agency and can probably only re-sign 2 of them.

• Geno Smith: Re-sign for 3 years ~$60M. He's in the twilight of his career and has only had 1 productive season, but he's the best option Seattle has right now as long as he signs a team friendly deal. QB's around his age and skill are making on average $35M/yr. If he demands this amount then the team would put themselves in cap risk and would need to consider other options in free agency, the trade market, and the draft. (79.8 PFF rated QB)

• Cody Barton: Re-sign for 2 years ~$4M total. Cody had the first full season of his career but was a huge downgrade over Bobby. Seattle made a huge mistake letting go of Bobby as it's clear BWagz was one of the highest rated ILB's in the league and Barton was bottom of the pack. He struggled with coverage, finding the right run gaps, tackling, and had a hard time getting off blocks. That being said Seattle is not deep at ILB and Barton could prove that another year learning from his mistakes could lead to a bounce back season, as long as the price is right. I would not given him starter ILB money and would look at FA's instead if that's the case. (63.7 PFF rated LB)

• Travis Homer: Re-sign for 2 years ~$2M. Homer's season was cut short due to injuries and sharing play time with other backups, but he still shows flashes of brilliance when he's healthy and gets a chance. He's a good 3rd down back capable of occasionally busting out a large gain and does well in pass blocking. He's also still young at 24. The hope is he's willing to come back on a friendly deal for a couple more seasons as the Seahawks have little veteran depth at RB. (63.2 PFF rated RB)

• Tyler Ott: Re-sign for 2 years ~$3M. Ott spent the entire season on IR and was replaced by Tinker. However, Ott is younger and more consistent than Tinker so if his injuries are behind him it would make more sense to go back to Ott who has more experience with the existing special teams unit. (5th best LS in the league based on critics. LS have no PFF rankings)

• Teez Tabor: Re-sign for 1 year ~$1M. Tabor played well as the 3rd string safety this season due to key injuries to Adams and Neal and poor play from Jones. He's a good backup option for Seattle again since he'll be relatively cheap and has experience in the system at both safety positions. (58.5 PFF rated S)

• Jonathan Abram:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$2M. Abram was a good stop gap when injuries piled up at strong safety, but with Adams coming back I'm curious if a former first round pick will take a pay cut and play the backup role. That being said if he accepts a one year veteran minimum deal then I'd choose him over Neal as the backup since he is younger, far less banged up, and would be more affordable. (49.7 PFF rated S)

• Tanner Muse:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Muse has been good on special teams and a decent backup at LB. He knows the system and outplayed Barton statistically in his limited experience. He's a restricted FA so the Seahawks should be able to get him at a minimum deal. (69.3 PFF rated LB)

• Penny Hart:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Hart has not been a good backup WR for the Seahawks but it's hard to ignore that he does have potential for the price. He's still relatively young at 26 and is a restricted FA so the Seahawks can get him on a minimum prove it deal for another season. (55.5 PFF rated WR)

• Jon Rhattigan:  Re-sign for 1 year ~$0.8M. Rhattigan was a beast in pre-season but never got to see the field in regular play. He could finally take the leap this season and perform on special teams and be a decent backup at LB. He knows the system but hasn't had any real NFL experience yet. He's an ERFA so the Seahawks should be able to get him at a minimum deal. (unrated due to no play time)

• Ryan Neal: Gone, ~$2.5-3M/yr saved. This is difficult because I love the energy Neal brings and he was one of the highest rated safeties in the league when healthy despite being a backup. Unfortunately injuries have piled up and he's going to want to make more money next season to capitalize on his tremendous year. The Seahawks can't afford to pay a backup SS starting money when they already have Adams. He currently makes $920k/yr but could be in line for 2-3x that next year. (85.6 PFF rated S)

• Austin Blythe: Gone, $4M/yr saved. Austin was ok this year but once teams figured him out he got destroyed by most DT's in run and pass blocking. He's hardly an upgrade over what the Seahawks had in Fuller despite his much higher contract. (51.2 PFF rated C)

• Poona Ford : Gone, $6.2M/yr saved. Poona was amazing as an undersized nose tackle his first couple years in the league. Unfortunately once he got paid, and had to adjust to a new scheme, his production fell off a cliff, especially for his contract. Seahawks need better at DT. (56.2 PFF rated DT)

• Rashaad Penny: Gone, $5.75M/yr saved. I said it last season and I was proven correct so I'll say it again. This is tough because Penny is explosive when healthy but he spent his entire career being hurt and doing next to nothing overall. The Seahawks run game demands availability and he isn't it. FA and draft have a lot of options to consider for a backup to K9. (70.2 PFF rated RB)

• L.J. Collier: Gone, $2.7M/yr saved. Collier hasn't lived up to his draft potential and Seattle has wanted to get rid of him his entire career, so they clearly regret the pick. It's obvious that he's physically talented but isn't willing to put in the work to be a good DL in the league. (39.2 PFF rated DL)

• Phil Haynes: Gone, $2.5M/yr saved. Haynes has been a career backup at G and hasn't shown any flashes of ever being a potential starter, nor being a reliable backup when a starter goes down. (51.2 PFF rated G) 

• Nick Bellore: Gone, $2.2M/yr saved. Bellore is a beloved name in Seattle but his production at FB and special teams have all fallen off. I believe he's going to retire. (47.3 PFF rated FB) 

• Artie Burns: Gone, $2M/yr saved. Burns has been a consistently good CB his entire career and would've been an automatic plug-in for Reed who left for the Jets. For some reason Pete decided that Jackson was the better starting CB and sat Burns all season. I don't see the Seahawks re-signing a veteran CB when the team prefers to start their inexperienced CB's instead. (69.5 PFF rated CB)

• Drew Lock: Gone, $1.75M/yr saved. Lock is a fan favorite because of his fun attitude and his ability to not be afraid to get the ball downfield. However, his playstyle is in opposition to what Pete wants in a game manager who limits possessions and turnovers. I see the Seahawks picking up a QB in the draft and they never hold onto more than 2 QB's on the active roster. If he came back it would be on a friendly short term deal and he'd have to compete with a rookie for the backup job. (60.0 PFF rated QB) 

• Marquise Goodwin: Gone, $1.2M/yr saved. Goodwin was a pleasant surprise this season as Geno's third favorite target. He individually saved multiple games with breakout performances. Unfortunately he's near the end of his career and is plagued with injuries which limits his upside. The Seahawks already have a couple options for their third WR on the active roster. (64.5 PFF rated WR)

• Kyle Fuller: Gone, $1.2M/yr saved. I would've cut Fuller after last season but for some reason Seattle brought him back to be backup C once more. He got very limited playtime behind Blythe but he didn't improve at all in his limited snaps. (55.6 PFF rated C)

• Justin Coleman: Gone, $1.1M/yr saved. I was surprised to see Coleman come back despite Seattle being deep at CB this year and wanting to reserve all play time for rookies. He added depth but didn't get much action at all. Much like Burns I don't see them bringing him back again. (59.3 PFF rated CB)

• Carson Tinker: Gone, $1M/yr saved. Tinker did well in place of Ott this season but he was only elevated off the practice squad due to injury. I don't see him getting preference over Ott when he's older and less experienced at the position. If nobody else signs him I hope the Seahawks get him back on the practice squad. (unrated LS on PFF)

• Josh Jones: Gone, $1M/yr saved. Jones should've been cut. His play cost the Seahawks several games this season. He's constantly out of position and misses tackles like it's his job. Abrams was a much better backup to Neal and even Tabor did better. (52.0 PFF rated S)

I would also let the following players explore free agency and only bring them back on the practice squad if nobody else picks them up: 

• Cullen Gillaspia
• Isaiah Mack
• Darryl Johnson

My projected re-signs would cost ~$30M per year and the players gone would free up ~$30M thus breaking even. Hitting in the draft and FA to replace players leaving with cheaper alternatives would be the best way to improve the holes in the team currently.

Seahawks top priorities in FA and draft:
G, C, DT, DE, ILB, RB, WR, QB

Potential FA signings to fill top priorities:

• OL: Depends on who the Seahawks keep around but most likely will lose 2 Centers and 1 backup G. Additionally, Lewis and Jackson are FA's next season.
• C: Ethan Pocic is actually available and just had the best year of his career. Perhaps the new system will serve him better than the old one under Russ. Some other good options at C are McGovern, Bradbury, Brendel, and Levin.

• DL: Seahawks are full of DE and DT who have all underperformed this season. They'll need to shore up the trenches if they intend to stop the run next season. 
• Edge: Right now the Seahawks aren't losing any starting rushers but the existing lot isn't getting the job done. I'd like to see the Seahawks either pick up one of the amazing rushers available in FA (Quinn, Ngakoue, Smoot, Ingram, Houston, Okoronkwo) or trade for one, while trading away one of their existing DE's for draft compensation.
• DT: The Seahawks have plenty of DT depth this season, even if they lose Ford, but they are shaky at stopping the run unless Woods is in. I'd like to see them trade away a DT for compensation or release one and pickup one in FA or the draft who can supplement Woods.

• LB: Let's face it, the Seahawks linebacking core without Wagner has been a disappointment. Meanwhile Bobby went on and had the 3rd best season of his career. Barton isn't getting the job done, BBK had a near career ending injury, and there isn't much depth for a natural ILB in the current scheme and roster.
• Anthony Walker or Tremaine Edmunds are my targets to replace Barton as starting ILB. Walker is more intriguing because he'll command half the salary as Edmunds. If Barton re-signs for cheap then I can see him competing in camp for the starting ILB role against a FA signing or draft pick.

• RB: The Seahawks lost Carson last season and could lose Penny and Homer this season. This would leave Walker and Dallas as the only RB's with experience left on the roster. Given both their recent injuries I'd say the Seahawks not only need to draft a RB but need to pickup a couple in FA as well, or possibly trade one of their mediocre players for a quality backup RB who is relatively young but also has starter experience.
• This season's FA market is full of RB's. I'd look at Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, D' Onta Foreman, Boston Scott, Samaje Perine, Ron Jones, Miles Sanders, D'ernest Johnson, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Damien Harris, James Robinson, Ty Johnson, Myles Gaskin, or Marlon Mack

• WR: The Hawks aren't losing their top 2 WR's to FA so this isn't really a big need BUT there's a good opportunity here to trade DK Metcalf for draft capital and to fill his void with a cheap veteran who can still produce. I still feel like the Seahawks should get rid of him while he has value. Tyler is getting older and more injury prone and the Seahawks may lose 2 backup WR's that need replacing.
• There's a bunch of potential WR's on this year's FA list including DJ Chark, Allen Lazard, Jakobi Meyers, Deonte Harty, Cam Sims, Jamison Crowder, Sammy Watkins, Zach Pascal, Keelan Cole, Breshad Perriman, Mecole Hardman, Rashard Higgins, Deandre Carter, Phillip Dorsett, Marquez Callaway, Darius Slayton, and Scotty Miller to name quite a few.

• QB: The Hawks could lose Geno if he demands more than they can afford. Based on his record setting season he could easily earn top 10 QB money which may force the Seahawks to turn to FA to find a stop gap until they can draft and develop their next QB. This year has some intriguing names available for less than $20M if Geno walks.
• Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jimmy G, Teddy 2 Gloves, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Tyler Huntley, and Gardner Minshew

Draft: 
The Hawks are now loaded with draft picks the next couple seasons due to fleecing other teams, most notably the Broncos. Currently they have 9 total picks in rounds 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6. This includes the #5 overall pick which could result in a trade down for more picks. There's a chance for more picks if they choose to trade a current player and they could also gain compensatory picks if players leave for big contracts elsewhere. 

Expecting them to draft OL (G and/or C), S, DL (DT and DE), RB, LB, WR and QB. 

I expect the Guards to remain the same next season so my hope is the Seahawks draft someone mid-late rounds to groom as a potential starter next season.. 

Safety needs to be for the future as Adams and Diggs won't both be on the team in a couple years.

DL is a huge priority and the Seahawks need a run stopping DT and a great pass rusher/edge setter at DE.

RB will be for depth and to be a potential starter in a few seasons when Walker inevitably is spent like Carson was.

LB will be for depth as well as to challenge the current starting roles which were weak this year.

WR will be for depth and to compete with the WR3/WR4 spot.

QB will be a potential backup to Geno or could compete for starting job if Geno walks.

Coaching staff changes: 
The Seahawks have been relatively quiet on potential coaching changes. While the offense had a few bad performances against good teams, and the defense was terrible most of the season, I could see putting most of the blame on the team being young and adapting to new schemes and players around them. I could see most of the important coaching positions remaining the same another season to wait and see if it was really the players or coaches/scheme.

Projected starters: This is assuming there's no major trades or moves made this off-season.

Offense:
QB: Geno Smith
RB: Ken Walker
WR1: Tyler Lockett - 
WR2: DK Metcalf - (there's a chance he's traded for a 1st round pick)
WR3: FA signing
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Damien Lewis
C: FA signing or draft
RG: Gabe Jackson
RT: Abe Lucas
TE: Noah Fant

Defense: (swap back to 4-3)
RE: Darrell Taylor
DT: Shelby Harris & Al Woods
LE: Uchena Nwosu
CBs: Tre Brown & Tariq Woolen (Coby Bryant in nickel formation)
LBs: Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, & Boye Mafe
SS: Jamal Adams
FS: Quandre Diggs