Mariners 2022: Magic Season Ends

The Mariners magical run in 2022 has come to a bittersweet end. The upside is the team overachieved this year and made it to the ALDS, while hosting their first playoff game in 21 years. Most people, outside the circle of overly positive fans, believed the Mariners were a year away from having a scary playoff team but some unexpected acquisitions and breakouts happened in 2022 to help make a push for the playoffs. 

Let's not gloss over the fact that the AL was weaker this year and that the MLB didn't expand the playoffs because the Mariners actually finished with the exact record that they had in 2021. Last year  they barely missed the playoffs due to the Red Sox and White Sox being good last year but both of those teams have since faltered.

While I have been critical of the team this year, it's mostly due to bad coaching/management of the team, and less on the players. I believe in the passion and desire these players have to win, but I often feel they are winning despite the coaching and game management. 

There's a large part of me who believes Kris Negron would be a better game manager since he actually won a championship as the head coach of the Rainiers. I believe he understands how to build a lineup, how to position the defense on every play, when to pull pitchers, and who to put in for key situations. I believe Servais is a great players coach and a fan/media favorite at the podium, but he cost the Mariners a lot of games in his tenure with bad decisions, including all 3 games against the Astros in the ALDS, 2 of which were easy wins that he faltered away. Servais should be moved to a new position as someone in the front office for player relations or something similar. 

Credit: MLB.com

Last year I focused on pitching, defense, coaching, and free agency as target areas for the Mariners to improve. I saw improvements in all but 1 of those areas (coaching) which is promising. Let's dig in to how the Mariners can continue their rise to success and make a championship caliber team in 2023. The last time the Mariners hosted the All-Star game they also tied the record for most wins in a season, so the expectations are high next year.

1) Getting On Base and Moving Base Runners

In 2022 the Mariners were 3rd from the bottom in batting average at an abysmal .230 team average. They were also well below league average for runners left on base, ops, strikeouts, and team sacrifices.

Since the MLB season is very long, teams can live and die by the long ball to survive. However, when you play tougher opponents, especially in the playoffs, the ability to force pitch counts, get on base, and manufacture runs is paramount. 

It was extremely embarrassing in the ALDS when the M's players were swinging at garbage pitches trying to be heroes, when simple walks and base hits would've won all 3 games that they lost. The players and coaches need to stop relying on the home run to win them games and start focusing on being patient at the plate, hitting away from the shift, bunting to advance runners, hitting sac flies with someone on third, and choking up to put the ball in play when behind in the count.

2) Consistency

In 2022 the Mariners started with a sub .500 record then had a staggering 14 game winning streak followed up by a hit or miss second half of the season. Being consistent is key in baseball, especially at the end of the season and into the playoffs. It helps to be hot at the right time but you have to also put together a solid season to even make the playoffs. 

The best way the Mariners can be consistent is to beat who they are supposed to beat by not underestimating their opponents, and play their tougher opponents harder to avoid blowouts. It's very clear the road through the AL is still through their division rivals in Houston so they need to find a way to unseat the perennial powerhouse. That starts with more consistency and better coaching, which we'll get into next.

3) Coaching

Coaching comes down to developing the talent, improving the team, and making the right decisions during key moments. While I credit Servais for back to back 90 win seasons, I feel like most of the kudos goes to the players who are winning despite bad management. 

Like I said last year, and every year, Servais has a history of making bad decisions when it comes to starting lineups, defensive substitutions, sacrificing runners over, defensive alignments, and management of pitchers. The one thing Scott is good at is capturing the admiration of fans, media, and the players for being an overly positive guy. 

The team's struggles against better teams, lack of consistency, and inability to manufacture runs when they need to really comes down to the manager. Servais needs to focus more on small ball. The home runs can be fun, but good teams know how to get on base and move runners, which is 100% on the coaching staff to emphasize over swinging for the fences every at bat. 

Servais seems to play the lottery with his lineups as the players hitting 1-9 have changed almost every single game of the season, which is wild. The Astros on the other hand have their lineup solidified and are the best team in the AL year after year. 

On top of that Servais seems to pull pitchers too early or too late, he overuses arms from the bullpen, he makes calls using baseless analytics instead of the flow of the game, and he is too reliant on power hitting over small ball.

The coaching changes going into 2023 look fairly minimal but I'd like to see Negron promoted to be more involved with managing the team. Negron won a championship in AAA and has proven he knows what it takes to manage playoff caliber games. 

Most analysts still place Servais in the bottom half of MLB manager rankings which is saying something after the team had back to back 90 win seasons.

4) Roster Improvements

The Mariners need to replace a couple key positions and bolster their pitching for next season. They have key decisions to make in corner OF as well as 2B. They also have a SP spot and a couple RP spots to consider, along with needing a reliable closer. 

Overall the Mariners are average at just about every position in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) so they should be open to considerations at most positions. 

I'm skeptical that the Mariners will make any big moves after hearing Dipoto (who's no longer the GM) still state they aren't willing to sign a better SS and/or move Crawford to 2B. Dipoto said the same thing last year and it scared any potential major middle infielder from signing with Seattle.

Players Who are Free Agents: Who to re-sign and who to let go

• Carlos Santana - starting DH, Santana had some very clutch doubles and HR's during the season but he's aging and expensive ($10.5M) for hitting for such a low avg (.202) - (should let go)
• Adam Frazier - starting 2B, Frazier was inconsistent all season, a rather expensive utility man ($8M) and was a shell of his Allstar self (.305 to .238 avg) - (should let go)
• Mitch Haniger - starting RF, can't stay healthy his entire career and is inconsistent (only 2 good seasons out of 6), he's expected to ask for a raise next season ($7M to $14M) - (should let go)
• Matt Boyd - SP/RP, hometown kid, Boyd contributed very little to the M's this season (only 10 appearances) but put up stellar stats. He's earned a re-sign. (should re-sign ~$5.5M)
• Curt Casali - backup C, acquired mid-season instead of a real bat. Ate up a playoff roster spot that could've been used for a pitcher. - (should let go)
• Chris Flexen - 6th SP/long relief, he just had the second best year of his career. Selflessly accepted long relief roll in bullpen when asked. M's could use his arm again next year in case of injuries or other players leaving. He can fill in for spot starts and long relief. - (should use club option $4M)
• Marcus Wilson - minor league OF, filled in temporarily for 3 games and seems to have been a 2nd round draft bust from 8 years ago. - (should let go or resign to minors only)
• Roenis Elias - SP/RP, reliable middle reliever who was brought back temporarily due to injuries. Given his age he's most likely done. -  (should let go)
• Matt Koch - RP, while under team control for another year and 3 years of arbitration left he's been unproductive for the Mariners. - (should let go)
• Ashur Tolliver - minor league RP, didn't make an appearance this year and hasn't pitched MLB in 5 years. Had no success against MLB hitters in his career. - (should let go)
• Alen Hanson - minor league 2B, hasn't had an MLB appearance in 3 years and his career numbers aren't good. - (should let go) 
• Pat Light - minor league RP, posted extremely bad numbers against MLB hitters in his limited experience. - (should let go)

What should the Mariners do to replace the few pieces that are leaving, as well as bolstering their lineup to be more successful and make a championship run? Here's a few areas they can look at: 

Weak or Missing Positions: 

• 2B/SS: Frazier should be gone, and with the bevy of middle infielders who are either available or interested in playing for a contender, the Mariners should be open to finding a quality middle infielder and then figuring out how they best mesh with JP Crawford.

• Big name options: Carlos Correa. Jean Segura. Trea Turner. Xander Bogaerts. Dansby Swanson. Tim Anderson. Jose Iglesias.

• RP: The Mariners had a top 5 bullpen for the second straight season and will be keeping a majority of their relievers if they want. However, the M's are lacking a consistent holder and closer. They do have arms to continue to fill those roles, but it would be nice to have someone who can come in and consistently be dominant 99% of the time to end a game.

• Some good FA's available: Edwin Diaz. David Robertson. Jose Leclerc. Kenley Jansen. Rafael Montero. Seth Lugo. Brad Hand. 

• Corner OF: The Mariners stand a chance to lose Mitch Haniger. Meanwhile Jared Kelenic hasn't been the highly touted player he was supposed to be and Kyle Lewis has no knees at this point. Winker is injured, not playing well, and butting heads with management. The Mariners have nobody left in the organization who can fill those roles so they need to sign, or trade for, a quality OF. They could also roll the dice with what they have and make a mid-season move with a basement team offloading talent.
• Some good FA's available: Aaron Judge. Andrew Benintendi. Michael Brantley. Corey Dickerson, Brandon Nimmo.