Seahawks 2021

 

As the crazy pandemic and politics filled NFL season has come to an end it's time to look forward to 2021. 

The Seahawks have a lot of work to do between finding a new Offensive Coordinator and dealing with a lot of free agents potentially leaving the team. Overall the Seahawks don't have a lot of cap space, which will make it difficult to retain almost all their starters, but after a first round playoff exit that's probably for the best. 

Let's dive into who they might keep, who they might let go, and which spots they need to fill to come back stronger next season. In order of who they might re-sign and most notable players first.

Unrestricted Free Agents:

• KJ Wright (re-sign if less than $9M, lifetime Seahawk coming off a great season after moving back to his og position, ranked #22 overall LB)
• Shaq Griffin (re-sign if less than $8M, expecting big offers similar to Dunbar but $8M/yr lands him where he ranks, #26 overall CB)
• Ethan Pocic (re-sign if less than $5M which is ~#20 ranked C/G spot, very good when healthy, #23 overall C)
• Benson Mayowa (re-sign if less than $3M, he's below avg at his position but showed promise once healthy, #64 overall DE)
• Nick Bellore (re-sign if less than $1.5M, probowl season in ST and affordable)
• David Moore (re-sign if less than $900K, one of his best seasons but Hawks can find similar production easily so he'll be on a short leash, #70 overall WR)
• Cedric Ogbuehi (re-sign if less than $3M, versatile and affordable backup, #60 overall T) 
• Damarious Randall (re-sign if less than $1.1M, an underrated backup, #18 overall S)
• Chris Carson (gone, Hawks want to re-sign but projected a big payday of 4 years/$28M, also very beat up after his rookie contract so production will drop most likely, #8 overall RB, frees $600k)
• Greg Olsen (gone, injury prone and will retire to the booth, frees up $7M)
• Bruce Irvin (gone, injury prone and his career seems over, frees up $5.5M)
• Mike Iupati (gone, injury prone and likely to retire, #18 overall G, frees up $2.5M)
• Jacob Hollister (gone, price tag too high for a 3rd string TE, #52 overall TE, frees up $3.3M)
• Quinton Dunbar (gone, injuries and off field drama made his Hawks debut sour, DJ Reed outplayed him, projected 3 year/$52M contract, frees up $1.9M)
• Carlos Hyde (gone, Hawks have too many RB's behind him who cost less, #31 overall RB, frees up $2.75M)
• Geno Smith (gone,  Hawks will draft a QB and bring in another to compete for backup, #45 overall QB, frees up $1.2M)
• Neiko Thorpe (gone, injuries and avg lately, frees up $1.2M)
• Branden Jackson (gone, not very good productivity and potential health issues with spine, frees up $1.05M)
• Phillip Dorsett (gone, out all season with injuries, frees up $1.05M)
• Josh Gordon (gone, out all season with off field issues, frees up $1.05M)
• Damontre Moore (gone, out most of the season with off field issues, #90 overall DE, frees up $900K)
• Lano HIll (gone, out most of the season with injuries, Hawks have Randall and Neal as better backups, frees up $800K)
• Jayson Stanley (gone, converted WR to CB who couldn't make Jags, Hawks, or Falcons active rosters, frees up $675K)

Restricted Free Agents:

• Jordan Simmons (ERFA so Hawks can re-sign for league min of ~$825K, versatile backup, tied with Lewis at #44 overall G) 
• Bryan Mone (ERFA so Hawks can re-sign for league min of ~$750K, affordable backup, #66 overall DT) 
• Ryan Neal (ERFA so Hawks can re-sign for league min of ~$825K, affordable backup, #3 overall SS) 
• Linden Stephens (ERFA so Hawks can re-sign for league min of $825K, serviceable backup and ST contributor, #120 overall CB) 
• Kyle Fuller (re-sign if less than $1M, RFA so Hawks can match offers, versatile and affordable backup, tied for #23 overall C with Pocic) 
• Poona Ford (re-sign if less than $4M, RFA so Hawks can match offers, very productive during rookie contract, #43 overall DT) 
• Shaquem Griffin (gone, productive on ST but will have to compete with rookies for playtime, #99 overall LB, frees up $750K) 

My projected re-signs would cost ~$39.725M next season and the players gone would free up ~$32.225M thus giving the Hawks $7.5M against their cap space.

Seahawks top priorities in FA and draft:
OL, DB, TE, RB, WR, DT

Potential FA signings to fill top priorities:

• OL: Depends on who the Seahawks keep around. Potential to lose Pocic, Iupati, Simmons, Ogbuehi, and Fuller. I can't imagine they'd lose them all but it seems a starting caliber G would be ideal if Iupati retires or leaves.
• Plenty of starting C & G available in FA in the $1-$5M range with ratings similar to or better than Hawks. Expect the Hawks to grab 1-3 of them.
• 25 OL are expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the draft so the Hawks could grab a quality OL in the draft too.

• DB: Adams will demand a blockbuster extension so Hawks will have a tough time keeping Adams, Dunbar, and Griffin together for the future. Expecting Reed & Flowers to hold the RCB side another season and Griffin to re-sign to stay starting LCB, unless another team is desperate for his skills.
• If Hawks lose Griffin and Dunbar there's very few quality starters available at affordable prices. Expect most to demand big money in the $8M+ range. 
• There are about 10 or so starting FA CBs available for < $8M/yr so expect the Hawks to sign one if they lose both Dunbar and Griffin.
• Draft is also stacked with 18 CBs expected in the first 5 rounds so expect the Hawks to draft a CB.
• Adams will want to be the top paid S in the league the next few years so expect him to demand $15M/yr for 3-4 years, which would eat a little over half the Hawks' cap. 
• Hawks could also trade Adams if he doesn't get the offer he wants and he may also sit out until he's paid or traded. Adams proved to be great tackler and pass rusher but his discipline in pass coverage needs major improvements. He's also going to have several off season surgeries.
• Notable starting alternatives available at SS are McDougald (who the Hawks traded for Adams along with draft picks), Neal, Joseph, Sendejo. 
• 11 Safeties are expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the draft so don't expect the draft to fill this spot for the Hawks

• TE: With the loss of Olsen, and possibly Hollister, this will be a huge hole. Hawks drafted a couple TE last year, but they haven't panned out so far (one even played DE for a game). Hawks need a quality TE to replace Olsen and to compliment injury prone Dissly.
• Notable names at < $5M in FA are Eifert, Lewis, Everett, Burton, Rodgers, Alie-Cox. Expect the Hawks to grab a decent TE in FA.
• Only 5 TE's expected in the first 5 rounds of the draft so drafting one this year is unlikely.

• RB: It's unlikely the Hawks can afford to pay Carson what he's owed. Especially if they want to keep Adams and Griffin. Unless he takes a home team discount expect him to move on. So far Homer and Dallas feel like busts and Penny is injury prone, thus leaving a big gap for a work horse RB. If they also move on from Carson and Hyde then it's FA or draft time.
• There is a long list of notable FAs available at < $5M price tag so expect the Hawks to grab one.
• 12 RBs expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the draft so the Hawks could also draft one.

• WR: If Hawks keep Moore then they simply need someone who competes with him and Swain for WR3/4 to add some depth behind Metcalf and Lockett. They will need an affordable veteran who is willing to block.
• Quite a few WRs are available for < $1M but none who would re-sign for that value have better ratings than Moore & Swain so don't expect a notable WR signing unless the Hawks move on from Moore.
• 24 WRs are expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the draft so expect the Hawks to definitely grab 1 or 2.

• DT: If the Hawks lose Poona then they will down to just Jarran Reed as a starting quality DT, with a handful of backups to rotate in. Every season the Hawks sign a couple veteran DTs so I expect the same. 
• There are plenty of FA DT's at Poona's < $4M price tag so expect the Hawks to grab at least one.
• There are 13 DTs expected to go in the first 5 rounds of the draft so don't expect the Hawks to draft one.

Draft: 
The Hawks are decimated in picks for a couple seasons due to recent trades, most notably for Adams and Dunbar. Currently they have 5 total picks in rounds 2, 4, 5, 7, 7. There's a chance for more picks if they choose to trade a current player and they could also gain compensatory picks if players leave for big contracts elsewhere. Expecting them to draft OL, DB, RB, WR, DL.

Coaching staff changes: 
The firing of OC Schotty was a bit surprising because Pete said prior to playoffs he planned to keep his primary coaches around for next season. However, after the loss they decided to move on. It's not so surprising as you could see the offense sputtered midway through the season and Schotty was unable or unwilling to adjust from "let Russ cook" to "let's control the clock and eliminate turnovers" which is what Pete prefers. 

Pete will need to find a solid OC who has a good history with a solid run game and play action play calling. A little creativity with Russ, DK, and Lockett would also go a long way, but not too much. Any OC coming in has to understand this is Pete's team and he'll always prefer an old school game plan to a new school one. 

There are plenty of assistant jobs at jeopardy as well. Player injuries, especially on defense, killed the Hawks this season and the OL ranked fairly poorly on the right side, so expect some changes to assistants.

Projected 2020 starters: Not expecting too many big changes to existing starters unless too many players leave in Free Agency.

Offense:
QB: Russell Wilson - (there's a slim chance the firing of Schotty and the run first offense could irk Russ to demand a trade. If so expect the Hawks to trade for someone starting caliber in addition to draft picks so they can bolster their future)
RB: Rashaad Penny
WR1: Tyler Lockett
WR2: DK Metcalf
WR3: David Moore/Freddy Swain
LT: Duane Brown
LG: new FA signing
C: Ethan Pocic 
RG: Damien Lewis
RT: Brandon Shell 
TE: Will Dissly

Defense:
RE: Rasheem Green (backup LJ Collier)
DTs: Jarran Reed & Poona Ford 
LE: Carlos Dunlap
CBs: Shaquille Griffin & DJ Reed
LBs: KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks
SS: Jamal Adams
FS: Quandre Diggs